Three Breakout Stars Last Night as Front-Runners Stumble
Author: Greg Valliere
October 16, 2019
DEMOCRATS ARE FACING A NIGHTMARE: A vulnerable President Trump without a compelling challenger — the party’s two front-runners showed their flaws last night, as three insurgents further complicated the nomination outlook. Our quick take-aways on the debate:
TIME TO GO: The back of the pack will thin out soon — it’s time to exit for Beto O’Rourke, Julian Castro, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Tom Steyer and the mystifying Tulsi Gabbard. All six had a few standout moments last night, but they’re in the 2% category; the dropouts will begin, mercifully, by Thanksgiving.
THE THREE BREAKOUT STARS: Amy Klobuchar won the debate, hands down. She’s determined to rescue the party from the loony left, and while she won’t be the presidential nominee, she’s a clear VP pick. The eloquent Pete Buttigieg had another strong night, a little edgier than past debates, and he could win 10% of the vote in Iowa. And then there’s Andrew Yang, who’s a cult hero among young people — he speaks their tech language, and dinosaurs like us don’t get his appeal.
JOE BIDEN HAD SEVERAL STRONG SOUND BITES, especially on his age, but let’s face it — he can’t get the words out very well; he never could, and debates aren’t his strong suit. But Biden turns 77 next month and has not dispelled the whispering that he’s too old. He gets a B-minus in most of his debates, not terrible — but pit bull Donald Trump could devour Biden in a one-on-one.
ELIZABETH WARREN DIDN’T HAVE A BAD DEBATE, but one message was loud and clear — her agenda is too radical and expensive, and she has no defense for that. We sense a ceiling in her support, especially since Bernie Sanders looked solid last night. A bonus for him is the endorsement by radical Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, a sign that Sanders will stay in this race well into the spring. Is the air seeping out of the Warren balloon? Maybe, to the relief of financial markets.
WHAT A GIFT FOR TRUMP, suffering from the worst stretch of his presidency. He probably will face either the stumbling Biden or the out-of-the mainstream Warren, whose flaws were apparent last night — and those flaws will be highlighted, relentlessly, by the remaining challengers.
THERE MAY BE ONE LAST PLEA to Michelle Obama to jump in — she would become the instant favorite — but we spoke with someone this week who knows her well. She’s having a blast hiking in southern California, Martha’s Vineyard and Hawaii, he said, far from the political world she despises. She’s apparently content to ignore the party, which faces a nightmare: possibly losing — once again — to Trump.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
