Time to Move On — Democrats Are Wasting Their Time On Impeachment
Author: Greg Valliere
May 30, 2019
MEMBERS OF CONGRESS TRADITIONALLY use this Memorial Day break to meet with their constituents at town hall meetings, getting a sense of the mood outside the Washington Beltway. We suspect there’s an anxious mood because of health care, trade tariffs and signs of a softening economy — but there simply isn’t a great clamor to impeach President Trump, despite his personal unpopularity and his distortion of Robert Mueller’s conclusions.
WE REITERATE OUR THEME: If you want Trump ousted from office, campaign against him and vote against him in November of 2020. But there’s no chance of convicting him in a Senate trial — there aren’t remotely close to the 67 votes required to do so. If House Democrats reject this reality and choose the spectacle of impeachment proceedings, their progressive base might be thrilled, but Trump will have his foil: a “witch hunt” that could boost his re-election prospects.
THIS WON’T BE EASY FOR NANCY PELOSI: Yesterday’s refusal by Mueller to clear Trump of obstruction of justice has prompted several Democrats running in 2020 to urge impeachment proceedings, but Pelosi knows that could backfire politically. We think her fallback position is as follows: more subpoenas and hearings, and a shift in focus to Trump’s tax and financial records.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE DEMOCRATS MAY UNCOVER in the next few months, there’s no escaping the certainty that Mitch McConnell’s Senate would quickly dismiss a House impeachment referral. So it’s time for the Democrats to move on, in our opinion, and focus on other issues; it’s futile to moan about Mueller’s insistence that he couldn’t indict a sitting president.
THERE ARE TWO MORE PRESSING ISSUES: First, a trade war that’s worsening, with a growing likelihood of major new U.S. tariffs on European goods on everything from German autos to French wine, which will add more uncertainty to the global economic outlook. Second, there’s still the issue that launched the Mueller probe — overwhelming evidence of Russian meddling in the 2016 election — and there’s no clear plan to combat it in 2020.
THE HOUSE SHOULD FOCUS ON THOSE ISSUES: A House impeachment — certain to fail — would simply be a capitulation to the left wing, raising the threat of a divided party; Joe Biden sided with Pelosi yesterday and backed away from impeachment, enraging the progressives. The Democrats are united on one goal — ousting Trump — and to choose the impeachment option could actually help Trump win re-election.
* * * * *
CORRECTION: Thanks to several sharp-eyed readers who emailed yesterday — obviously we meant to say that if inflation picks up because of massive tariffs, the possibility of a rate CUT could become less likely. One reader said she expects one rate reduction in the second half, not two, which seems about right.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.