Trump Speech Today — Clues on Trade? Plus, New Hampshire’s Filing Deadline is Friday
Author: Greg Valliere
November 12, 2019
TRUMP SPEECH TODAY MAY FOCUS ON TRADE: President Trump will address the Economic Club of New York this noon, and the markets will be listening carefully for clues on U.S.-China trade talks. Our sense is that Phase One is close to completion, with final details likely before Dec. 15, when new U.S. tariffs on China are scheduled to take effect.
TRUMP VACILLATES WEEKLY on a deal, but the bottom line is that if he fails to nail down Phase One, he will have to spend time and money in states like Iowa and Missouri, which could be competitive in the election because farmers are angry over mixed messages on tariffs. Trump has been told bluntly by his political and economic allies that he could lose re-election if there’s no trade deal.
THE HEAVY LIFTING will come in Phase Two, which isn’t close to completion as both sides bicker over intellectual property theft, technology transfers and China’s subsidies for state-owned companies. A deal on Phase Two may be a year away. Meanwhile, a huge wild card could complicate the trade talks: the growing likelihood that Beijing will have to crush the insurrection in Hong Kong.
AS FOR OTHER TOPICS from Trump today, we’ll be listening for clues on tax policy. With the Atlanta Fed predicting GDP growth of only 1% this quarter, Trump needs to do more than bash the Federal Reserve, so he has instructed Larry Kudlow and his economic advisers to come up with a tax cut. Chances are slim that the House would go along without a big tax hike on corporations and the wealthy.
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AS WINTER ARRIVES IN THE EAST, New Hampshire’s first-in-the nation primary, on Feb. 11, can’t be far off. Unlike the complicated voting rules in Iowa, the Granite State will hold a traditional election — and the filing deadline is this Friday.
LOOKING FOR RELIEF FROM THE IMPEACHMENT DRUMBEAT, we’ll be watching who files in Concord; Michael Bloomberg’s intentions may become clear, and other entrants may emerge. Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, who has zero chance of becoming president, may file but the real intrigue involves Hillary Clinton. Chances she’ll run: 15%.
SOME NEW HAMPSHIRE SURPRISES: The Quinnipiac poll released yesterday showed Joe Biden climbing back into first place, with 20%, Elizabeth Warren at 16% and — interestingly — Pete Buttigieg in third place with 15% and Bernie Sanders at 14%. Perhaps most stunningly, 54% said they would never vote for Michael Bloomberg. Fearless forecast: he will drop out by Thanksgiving.
BIDEN’S DECENT POLL RESULTS were followed up by a solid, gaffe-free Town Hall last night in Iowa. Ominously for the party, he intensified his criticism of Warren, essentially arguing that she’s an elitist who wants to impose a radical no-choice health plan on the country.
THE GLOVES ARE OFF as the attacks become more personal among the Democrats — but there’s total unity among t
he Republicans, whose fierce loyalty to Trump still persuades us that no more than three or four Senators would vote to convict him, regardless of the evidence.
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