Trump’s Next Foil — California; Plus, Crocodile Tears on Bolton, Canadian Election
Author: Greg Valliere
September 11, 2019
DONALD TRUMP’S GREAT SKILL: No one can identify and demonize a foil like President Trump, which is one of many reasons why it’s way too soon to count him out despite terrible poll numbers. Just last night in North Carolina, GOP turnout seemed boosted by voters who agree with Trump’s assertion that Democrats are socialists who will ruin the country. And more foils are coming.
THE NEXT ONE WILL BE CALIFORNIA, where the non-judgmental climate in San Francisco and Los Angeles has produced Dickensonian scenes of addicts sleeping in the streets. The upcoming narrative seems clear: Trump is about to demand a crackdown, but negotiations to produce reforms will break down because the state’s uber-liberal Democrats will refuse to deal with him. Trump will then blast away, making the squalor in California a campaign issue.
TRUMP NEEDS ISSUES LIKE THIS to drive up turnout, as he did last night, where the Republican candidate won by only 2%. The losing Democrat, a politically moderate former Marine officer, was hurt Trump’s last minute charges that Democrats “hate” America. Politics ain’t pretty, and Trump knows how to push the buttons.
NEW POLLS FROM THE WASHINGTON POST AND ABC NEWS were immediately denounced as “fake” by Trump because they showed a sharp drop in his approval rating — below the all-important 40% threshold — and, more importantly, a significant decline in his ratings on handling the economy. With a new poll in Texas showing him trailing the top three Democrats, you know Trump is vulnerable — which is why he will exploit every foil imaginable.
* * * * *
CROCODILE TEARS ON BOLTON: The hypocrisy is always thick in Washington, so yesterday’s reaction to John Bolton’s sacking wasn’t surprising. He’s an abrasive foreign policy militant, even more hawkish than Dick Cheney, and he couldn’t get along with anyone in the Trump Administration, including the president.
BUT BOLTON WAS HAILED yesterday by Washington’s Trump-hating talking heads as a victim of Trump’s dysfunction; suddenly, Bolton has become a sympathetic figure despite his desire to take military action in Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, etc.
TWO TAKE-AWAYS FROM THIS EPISODE: First, Trump and Trump alone is the decision-maker; Bolton’s replacement will have little real influence. Second, chances of U.S. military involvement in global hot-spots have diminished a bit. Trump is eager to meet with all of the world’s despots, and undoubtedly will get some great photo-ops before the election, claiming victories when none are apparent.
TRUMP IS AN ISOLATIONIST, averse to nation-building and foreign entanglements. While chances of a serious conflict aren’t zero, they’re lower than in recent years because the president wants a huge defense budget and personal deal-making, and his unorthodox approach has kept the U.S. out of war.
* * * * *
WE LOVE FASCINATING ELECTION CAMPAIGNS, so a treat is about to begin in Canada, where Justin Trudeau launches his re-election campaign today. Unlike the endless slog in America, Canada will vote in about five weeks. What makes this election interesting is a scandal that Trudeau handled poorly, offset by an economy that looks pretty good in all but the energy-producing provinces.
THEN ADD IN A WILD CARD: Could the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact, replacing NAFTA, be ratified before the Oct. 21 election? We think it’s possible. Any kind of breakthrough would help Trudeau claim that he has won a great victory for his country’s economy.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE RACE between the charismatic Trudeau and the Conservatives, led by Andrew Scheer, 40, who is a classic small-government, low-tax candidate who is socially conservative. A major complication in the race will be third and fourth parties, especially the Greens, who favor a carbon tax, an issue that could hurt Trudeau.
THE FINAL OUTCOME may be a weakened Trudeau, forced to patch together a minority government and an awkward coalition in Parliament. That could result in still another election within a year or so.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI is registered as a portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
