Two New States Have Become Surprisingly Competitive
Author: Greg Valliere
June 4, 2020
IT’S TOO EARLY TO MAKE DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS about the November election, but our view that Donald Trump is the underdog is reinforced by two surprising new polls — from Fox, no less — that show Joe Biden slightly ahead in Texas and Ohio.
BOTH STATES have generally been considered Trump territory; he easily carried them in 2016 — Texas by 9 points, Ohio by 8 points. If forced to wager, we’d bet that Trump will win them again, by a much closer margin. At the least, he will have to spend time and resources in both states.
POLLS HAVE BEEN SUSPECT SINCE 2016, so we rely on the aggregate of all polls that is published on the excellent web site, RealClearPolitics.com. As of this morning, the RCP average has Biden ahead nationwide by 7.8 points, with him leading narrowly in Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (a separate poll in the latter state yesterday shows Trump narrowly ahead).
WE HAD THOUGHT THAT TRUMP could gain some ground this week as a “law and order” candidate, but the looting has subsided — and it’s possible that his tough talk about sending troops to states has backfired.
THAT’S BECAUSE HE CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE any more key constituencies, and the reaction to his photo op at a church on Monday night alienated religious leaders — and especially the military. Trump is intensely disliked at the Pentagon, and now Defense Secretary Mark Esper is on thin ice. Highly respected Gen. James Mattis, the former Defense Secretary, issued a scathing denunciation of Trump yesterday.
TRUMP ALREADY HAS ALIENATED people of color, college educated women, young people, suburbanites, and environmentalists. Yes, his base is rock-solid, but it’s far from a majority of voters. And new polls show Trump slipping badly among independent voters.
TRUMP AIDES ARE POINTING TO THE SURGING STOCK MARKET — and rising bond yields — as signals that the economy is recovering quickly. And Trump will insist on more stimulus this summer, which could help his prospects. The markets are so euphoric that — to our astonishment — there’s little sentiment that Biden could win the presidency.
IF TEXAS AND OHIO ARE REALLY COMPETITIVE, Biden most assuredly could win the presidency (despite his flaws, which Trump will exploit). What the markets have to appreciate is that this race isn’t about Biden, who’s merely adequate; it’s about Trump, whose temperament repeatedly raises concerns — even at the Pentagon.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.