What Kamala Harris Brings; Stimulus Chaos Persists
Author: Greg Valliere
August 12, 2020
KAMALA HARRIS, THE SMART PICK: Joe Biden helped his cause by picking Kamala Harris, who will add a half point — or maybe even a point — to the party’s vote total in states like North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. Hillary Clinton had disappointing results from African-Americans in those states; the Biden-Harris ticket will not.
EVEN HARRIS’ ALLEGED FLAWS WILL HELP BIDEN: She’s aggressive and sharp-elbowed, her detractors say, but he’s perceived as slowing down. She’s not popular on the far left (she likes Silicon Valley and is a moderate on police reform), but that makes it difficult for Republicans to attack her as a radical.
IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, this is Biden’s election to win or lose; Harris won’t make a huge difference. But she’s different — half Indian, half Jamaican, sharp and feisty. And when hit, she will hit back hard, like Trump.
NO ELITISM? Harris is a graduate of Howard University in Washington — neither she nor Biden is an Ivy League grad (no winning ticket since 1976 has been without one; maybe a respite would be a good idea).
THIS ELECTION JUST GOT EVEN MORE INTERESTING: Biden is good for a gaffe a week, and his agenda of tax hikes and huge new government programs is risky. But the campaign needed a fresh face and Harris can provide some pizzazz and eloquence in ways that Biden can’t. His chances of winning the presidency have improved a bit.
* * * * *
THE STIMULUS MESS: In the wake of Trump’s executive orders, chaos reigns. Most states, including those run by Republicans, are out of money; they don’t want to kick in anything for unemployment relief. Corporations aren’t sure whether they should withhold payroll taxes.
THIS IS A PERFECT PRESCRIPTION FOR LAWSUITS — but as we predicted on Monday, the Democrats have been out-maneuvered; the last thing they want is to be portrayed as suing to prevent aid to millions of Americans. Democrats are looking for surrogates who can take this to court.
BUT THIS RAISES A MAJOR CONCERN: Lawsuits could take months to resolve, and the lack of any benefits for at least a few more weeks could weaken the economy and confuse the markets. Trump knows this, so he will gladly resume negotiations (while threatening even more executive action if Democrats don’t come to the table).
MITCH McCONNELL, LARGELY ABSENT FROM THE TALKS, also wants to jump-start the negotiations, in part because it looks like he’s in a tight re-election fight in Kentucky. Most members of Congress have left town, but the key negotiators could resume talks in the next few days. It’s too early to conclude that there won’t be a deal; the Democrats need a new strategy.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.