What the Republicans Need This Week; Congress Focuses on the Wrong Issue
Author: Greg Valliere
August 24, 2020
DONALD TRUMP IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BEHIND in polling numbers compared to four years ago, when he steadily gained momentum in the fall and eventually won 304 electoral votes. His chances look shakier this year, which is why this week’s GOP convention will be crucial. Some major questions:
Can Trump expand his support beyond his base? From what we can tell, the convention will be filled with Trump loyalists who will appeal to his base. His advisers are exasperated that he can’t break through with college-educated women, who overwhelmingly oppose him. Can the party look reasonably moderate this week? This will be crucial.
Can Trump demonize Joe Biden? Going after Biden’s mental acuity seems mean-spirited and, more importantly, inaccurate — in light of Biden’s well-received speech last week. Trump and his surrogates have to focus almost exclusively on Biden’s huge list of tax hikes and the surge of urban violence.
Can Trump gain Hispanic support? A few columnists this weekend noted what we saw last week — Hispanics were virtually invisible at the Democrats’ convention. Hispanics are persuadable on social issues like abortion, and convention organizers will feature Venezuelan and Cuban speakers every night who were driven out of their countries by socialist dictators.
Can Trump stay on message? This is a huge variable; Trump could say something provocative about his relatives, or election fraud, or Q ANON, and that could cost him a full day’s news spin. If he stays on message, he could be trailing by only 6-7 points by Labor Day.
* * * * *
CONGRESS FOCUSES ON THE WRONG ISSUE: Nancy Pelosi’s troops overwhelmingly passed a postal funding bill this weekend that now looks stalled, while they overlooked a far greater issue: millions of Americans are hurting, facing evictions and falling below the poverty line, as Washington dithers.
THE TRUMP EXECUTIVE ORDER on stopping evictions was a publicity stunt; evictions are increasing. Likewise, his order to increase unemployment relief has had no impact. Only one state — Arizona — has participated in the plan to grant $300 weekly benefits. Without a new stimulus bill, a softening economy seems likely this fall.
YET PELOSI, who said recently that “now is not the time” to move on stimulus, spent political capital on the post office, which processes more junk mail (at 19 cents per piece) than anything else. People’s prescriptions are not at risk; over 90% are picked up at pharmacies. And over 95% of Social Security checks are directly deposited, not mailed.
THE POST OFFICE HAS LOST $83.1 BILLION since 2006 and obviously needs major reforms — or privatization. As for alleged voter suppression, three’s plenty of money available for the post office to step up its handling of ballots this fall. But as the Washington Post wrote this morning, there’s plenty of flaws in mail-in balloting, including lost mail.
PEOLSI THINKS SHE HAS A COMPELLING ISSUE — 90 percent of the public loves the post office — but the bigger issue by far is that neither she nor Mitch McConnell are prepared to help Americans who are rapidly falling into poverty as small businesses close and evictions increase.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
