What Was Mike Bloomberg Thinking Last Night? Plus, Gordon Sondland’s Impact
Author: Greg Valliere
November 21, 2019
AN OPENING FOR BLOOMBERG: We applied the following standard while watching the Democrats’ debate last night — which of the candidates on the stage looked like plausible presidents? The answer: no one.
FORGET ABOUT WHO WON DEBATING POINTS and who was the most fluent on issues, we’re getting to the stage in this race where electability is the key issue. So who gained last night?
Joe Biden? Sorry, he’s too old, not crisp or in command. Halting. Can’t get the words out. At times the other candidates laughed, patronizingly, at his stumbles.
Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders? Predictable, nothing new. Too polarizing. Risky gambles, they could lose 40 states — and party leaders know it.
The candidates to watch? Pete Buttigieg, whose momentum wasn’t broken last night; he’s the frontrunner right now but has a long, long way to go. And Amy Klobuchar, solid and likable as always, perhaps on the verge of a winter surge.
Kamala Harris, Cory Booker or Andrew Yang? The future, likely to be strong candidates in 2024 — but they don’t seem to be plausible presidents, at least not now.
Tulsi Gabbard or Tom Steyer? Seriously, what were they doing on the stage?
SO WHAT WAS MIKE BLOOMBERG THINKING? We’d guess he concluded that Trump could beat every one of the ten candidates on the stage last night. A net worth of about $55 billion brings a large dose of hubris, so Bloomberg undoubtedly thinks he’s the only Democrat who can beat Trump, and perhaps he’s correct.
WE WOULD GUESS that Bloomberg’s desire to plunge in was intensified last night. He’s probably correct that winning Iowa and New Hampshire will not guarantee a candidate victory on Super Tuesday in California on March 3, and he’s prepared to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in the two dozen races on that date and on March 10.
WE STILL THINK PARTY ACTIVISTS resent the aging Wall Street billionaire, who is well to the right of most Democrats, but we also still believe Bloomberg has the intellect and temperament to be a good president. Deval Patrick, who will not be the nominee, got it right: there’s a clear path to overtake Biden, Warren and Buttigieg. Bloomberg surely realized that last night.
* * * *
WAS GORDON S0NDLAND “someone I hardly knew” as President Trump claimed yesterday? Not really. Sondland delivered body blows to Trump, Mike Pompeo, Rick Perry and Republicans who are scrambling to insist that Trump wasn’t directly involved, even though “everyone was in on it,” as the colorful Sondland said yesterday.
THE BEST THAT REPUBLICANS CAN DO is assert that there’s no definitive proof that Trump was complicit; their fallback, of course, is that even if Trump was the ringleader, his actions did not rise to the impeachable level of high crimes and misdemeanors.
AND THAT MAY BE ENOUGH for the Senate, where there was no real shift among Republicans who were paying attention yesterday. Unless John Bolton produces explicit tapes or emails proving Trump’s involvement, it’s still the same story — the House has plenty of evidence to warrant impeachment, but the Senate will acquit.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2019 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.