Why Trump Helped Himself Last Night
Author: Greg Valliere
February 6, 2019
IT’S MANDATORY TO MAKE SOME COMMENTS after a State of the Union address, even though these long, long speeches are largely forgotten within days. So here goes with some quick takes:
A LITTLE BOUNCE IN THE POLLS: Most presidents move the needle a few points in these speeches, and it appears that Donald Trump did as well. Unscientific overnight polls showed he got what he needed — generally positive grades and strong support from independents. So Trump’s re-election campaign began last night with mission accomplished: no real damage and a little uptick in the polls.
IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID: As we suspected, Trump played to his strong suit. His long litany of economic positives was exaggerated as usual but mostly accurate; whether he deserves all the credit is debatable, but no matter — the economic fundamentals are solid and he won’t let anyone forget it.
THE PRESIDENT GETS TO MAKE NEWS: A master of teasing a big announcement, Trump made news last night: he and North Korean President Kim Jong-un will meet later this month. Making real news, changing the narrative, is a perk that presidents have and their opponents generally lack.
DID TRUMP SOFTEN A BIT ON THE BORDER WALL? Trump sounded slightly less rigid on a wall compromise, emphasizing “border security.” He undoubtedly knows there would be a rebellion among congressional Republicans if he allows another shutdown, so the message this week from the White House is that a deal is still possible.
CHUTZPAH AWARD: For Trump to plea for civility and bipartisanship was rich, but more importantly it didn’t really change the outlook for legislation: everyone agrees on the need to improve the country’s infrastructure and control drug prices, but there’s no agreement on the details. Both parties are simply looking for issues to exploit as the next election approaches.
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: Trump couldn’t resist a complaint about “ridiculous partisan investigations,” which will hound him this year as House Democrats subpoena and Robert Mueller indicts. Trump thinks the public is tired of this and doesn’t care; we’ll see.
WHAT ABOUT THE MARKETS? There were no real surprises for investors, who have to expect headline risk for drug companies and tough talk on trade. The markets will always be wary of Trump because of his unpredictability, but he’s hitting the right notes — even inviting Jay Powell to the White House for dinner a few days ago.
TRUMP KNOWS THE ECONOMY AND THE MARKETS will be huge factors in his re-election campaign. So will the mood among center-right voters, so it made perfect sense for Trump to sharply attack socialists and late-term abortion. An uphill election fight still looms for Trump, but he got off to a decent start last night.
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