Will Joe Biden Run in 2024?
Author: Greg Valliere
March 12, 2021
WASHINGTON EXHALED THIS WEEK as Joe Biden, just two months into the job, won the signature issue of his presidency — enactment of a massive Covid relief package that could produce a red-hot economy by summer.
WHAT’S LEFT? Biden has other objectives — starting with an infrastructure bill, which probably will pass by late fall. And he has other issues to confront, headed by immigration. But Biden’s main goals — crushing Covid and enacting a hugely expensive liberal wish-list — have been accomplished; these probably will be his legacy.
THIS BEING WASHINGTON, speculation has immediately shifted to the political implications of Biden’s victory. Republican opposition to the Covid bill was limp and ineffective; Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, 79, is widely viewed as losing a step or two.
TIME STOPS FOR NO ONE: Biden, 78, has sent mixed signals on whether he wants to run for re-election in 2024. He could win; his job approval ratings are mostly in the mid-50s — good but not great, much better than Donald Trump’s numbers.
BUT DOES BIDEN REALLY WANT A SECOND TERM? He could bask as the economy accelerates this year and next, but by 2024 the big economic issues could be inflation and the surging budget deficit — which almost certainly would require spending cuts, monetary restraint and tax increases, a trifecta that Biden might prefer to avoid.
SO WHAT DO THE ODDSMAKERS SAY? The Las Vegas and London bookies have a pretty good track record, so we indulged a guilty pleasure this morning and looked at their predictions.
THE WINNER OF THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION will be Kamala Harris, most oddsmakers say. She’s considered the logical successor to Biden, perhaps in part because there are few blockbuster challengers to her in either party. For investors, it’s worth noting that Harris is well to Biden’s left on many issues, including fracking and national health insurance.
WHO’S NEXT IN LINE? Some oddsmakers place Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first. The New York firebrand, who would be barely old enough to serve as president, would electrify the party’s progressive base but could she win a general election? We doubt it. If Biden doesn’t run, several other Democrats could challenge Harris: Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, etc.
ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, the oddsmakers make Donald Trump the favorite to win the 2024 nomination (but not the presidency). Trump will have his hands full with indictments in the next couple of years, but in a crowded field he could win the nomination, as he did in 2016.
THE ODDSMAKERS LIKE Nikki Haley but GOP voters are cool to her after she ripped Trump. Mike Pence has also lost altitude but almost certainly will run. The hottest Republicans right now are Ron DeSantis, the controversial Florida governor, and Kristi Noem, the mask-hating South Dakota governor. Mike Pompeo has some grass-roots support.
FOUR OTHER FIERCELY AMBITIOUS REPUBLICANS are likely to run — Sens. Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz. The latter two may never recover from their role in the Jan. 6 riot on Capitol Hill.
MUCH WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW and the next presidential election — including re-districting, which will change the Electoral College makeup. The old cliché that “a month is a lifetime in politics” surely will apply; after all, just a year ago Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom were the Democrats’ rising stars — and today they couldn’t get elected dog-catchers.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.