You Want to Oust Trump? Reeling Democrats Focus on Plan B
Author: Greg Valliere
April 22, 2019
EVERY DEMOCRAT WE TALKED WITH this past weekend thinks Donald Trump is guilty of obstruction of justice, but they also agree that the country has little appetite for an ugly impeachment process, which could take a year or longer.
AS ONE DEMOCRAT TOLD US YESTERDAY, “If you want Trump out of office, vote him out” in the fall of 2020; this is the party’s grudging Plan B. There will be plenty of hearings — and explosive public testimony from Robert Mueller this summer — but impeachment, most party leaders believe, would simply give Trump another opportunity to demonize his accusers, which he does very, very well.
THIS DOESN’T MEAN TRUMP IS TOTALLY OFF THE HOOK: We think Trump’s most prove-able offense involves his alleged looting of the Trump Foundation, to pay for personal expenses. That, potentially, is a felony.
NEVERTHELESS, CHANCES OF A CONVICTION IN THE SENATE on any Trump offense are now close to zero; only a handful of Republicans — like Susan Collins and Mitt Romney — have any stomach for standing up to the president (even though, in private, most GOP lawmakers loathe him).
TRUMP’S POLL NUMBERS, which have slipped a few points this month, make the 2020 election a very close call, which is why the Democrats are embracing Plan B. But when your hottest candidate is the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Ind., you have a shaky field. So here comes Joe Biden, ready to announce his candidacy this week.
WE’RE IN A MINORITY — We still think Biden is the Democrats’ front-runner, for three reasons: first, he has near universal name recognition and good will within the party; second, he has a clear lead over Bernie Sanders and other Democrats in the polls; and third, Biden has a decent chance of winning three states that Trump carried in 2016 — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
BIDEN HAS A BOAT-LOAD OF FLAWS: His past creepy caressing will always be an issue with some female voters; he’s notoriously windy and undisciplined as a speaker; and he hasn’t had a new idea in years. Ironically, those flaws are also Trump’s flaws — except Biden is reasonably likable and Trump most definitely is not.
WHAT ARE THE POST-MUELLER IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY? Trump is seething, itching for a fight even though he has dodged a potentially fatal bullet. Neither he nor the Democrats, both in full campaign mode, have any reason to cooperate on anything, whether it’s infrastructure, trade, the wall with Mexico, prescription drug pricing or the budget. The latter will be a huge brawl this autumn.
TRUMP WILL PLAY TO HIS BASE on immigration, but winning his base in 2020 will not be sufficient. He has already lost the health care debate, so Trump needs a red-hot economy a year from now. This year’s GDP pace looks surprisingly strong (we’ll get first quarter data on Friday), but the outlook for 2020 is unclear. Trump is hoping for rate cuts from the Fed, but we think the next move, perhaps by winter, could be a rate hike as the exceptionally tight labor market begins to heat up inflation and wages.
THE GREAT WILD CARD will be geopolitics, as we saw over the weekend in Sri Lanka. Then came news that Trump will tighten the screws on Iran’s exports, sending oil prices sharply higher this morning, which eventually will inflate gasoline prices as the summer driving season begins. Lots of moving parts everywhere (China trade, Brexit, etc.) but it appears that impeachment will not be one of those moving parts.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2019 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
