A BUDGET DEAL, AVOIDING DEFAULT, IS NOT IMMINENT: Leaders of both parties will meet at the White House tomorrow with a default crisis perhaps only a month away, but there’s no chance they can iron out a compromise quickly.
ALL SORTS OF GIMMICKS are getting one last look, but we think the 14th amendment to the Constitution, pledging to honor all debts, is a long-shot — as is a scheme of minting a $1 trillion coin, which theoretically would cover all debts through the end of the year.
WITH SUCH LIMITED OPTIONS — AND NO CONSENSUS ON SPENDING — there’s only one gimmick that makes any sense: a “kick the can” delay until fall, allowing members of Congress to debate spending cuts and a debt ceiling extension through the summer.
MEMBERS OF CONGRESS ARE GRUDGINGLY considering an extension until Sept. 30, when the fiscal year ends. This would set up an enormous battle on the 2024 budget and the debt ceiling, all at once. We think this would require another extension, with the dysfunctional Congress debating just before Christmas on still another chaotic year-end package.
THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO: Lots of House Republicans may refuse to vote for a “kick the can” extension, and they may demand a debt default showdown in June. We we still think there’s a 60-40 chance of an ultimate deal — but first there would have to be an agreement on an extension, and that vote would be very close.
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PRESIDENT BIDEN’S POLL NUMBERS continue to slip, according to an extensive Washington Post-ABC News poll that was released over the weekend. His job approval has hit a new low at 36%.
PARTY LEADERS ARE ALARMED to see Biden’s numbers plunging among young people and Hispanics, and Donald Trump now has a 54% positive rating on his handling of the economy, compared to 36% for Biden.
ASTONISHINGLY, 63% OF RESPONDENTS said Biden “does not have the mental sharpness to serve effectively as president,” while 64% said Trump has sufficient mental abilities. Despite his surge in the polls, Trump scores poorly on his personal honesty.
IN HEAD-TO-HEAD matchups, Trump leads Biden by six points while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leads Biden by five points. With most Democrats saying that they favor a nominee other than Trump, you have to wonder if some ambitious governor may be thinking of challenging Biden for the nomination. The president looks very vulnerable.
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