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Two Wild Cards to Watch This Summer

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Insights and Market Perspectives

Two Wild Cards to Watch This Summer

Author: Greg Valliere

June 16, 2023

YOU CAN BE SURE that something will come out of nowhere, a major development that few people expected. It happens frequently in the summer. We have two candidates, potential wild cards that could emerge in the next few weeks.

THE FIRST IS THE POSSIBILITY of a protracted Teamsters strike against UPS, which could cripple the economy and scramble the supply chain if there’s a walkout that could drive 340,000 workers to the sidelines, which would be one of the largest work stoppages in recent decades. The Teamsters are expected to authorize a strike today.

THE MAJOR STICKING POINTS are higher pay, the creation of more full-time jobs and the elimination of UPS’s reliance on a lower-paid class of delivery driver.

TEAMSTERS PRESIDENT Sean O’Brien has taken a hard line. If there’s a strike, he says, “it’s going to be because of the greediness of this company and their unwillingness to reward the people who have made them the success that they are.”

THERE WAS A MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH RECENTLY, as UPS agreed to install air conditioning in new trucks, which has been a longtime demand of delivery drivers who work in the summer heat for up to 14 hours a day. Older vans will be equipped with a second fan as part of the deal.

THE STARTING PAY for part-time workers who handle packages in UPS warehouses is $15.50 an hour, which workers say is not a sustainable wage. Roughly half of UPS Teamsters positions are part-time warehouse jobs.

THIS DISPUTE FOLLOWS A DEAL after months of negotiations between the International Longshore Workers Union and West Coast workers; the deal includes a wage increase of 8 to 10 percent for the first year, and retroactive hikes for last year’s pay. The average annual earnings for longshoremen will be roughly $200,000 analysts say.
* * * * *
THE SECOND WILD CARD is the possibility that an obscure Donald Trump aide — Waltine “Walt” Nauta — could shake up the political world. Who’s Walt Nauta? He was indicted this week along with his boss, Trump, and Nauta potentially faces jail time. Could he “flip,” turning against Trump in a plea deal? It’s possible, prosecutors think, since Nauta has become a fixture in Mar-a-Lago and his testimony could be explosive.

NAUTA, 40, IS A NAVY VETERAN who has been a valet, a “body man,” a cook and a “fixer” for Trump. The two have become inseparable, and the indictment alleges that Trump and Nauta conspired to to hide classified documents from the government.

ACCORDING TO THE INDICTMENT, Nauta helped bring boxes to Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago for his review before Trump returned 15 boxes of documents to the National Archives in January 2022. When interviewed by the FBI in May 2022, however, prosecutors allege Nauta falsely said he had no knowledge of additional boxes being taken to Trump’s suite.

NAUTA COULD BE SEEN seen on surveillance video removing 64 boxes from the club’s ground floor storage room after Trump received a grand jury subpoena seeking classified records in May 2022. According to the indictment, Nauta was spotted returning only 30 boxes to the room, just before a lawyer for Trump searched the room for documents to turn over to the government in response to the subpoena.

TRUMP AND NAUTA spoke repeatedly by phone before Nauta moved the boxes, the indictment alleges. Government officials have seized Nauta’s phone. Facing the prospect of jail time, Nauta will be the subject of intense speculation this summer.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.

AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.

Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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