Could Donald Trump Win Re-election? Plus, Fresh Kremlin Intrigue
Author: Greg Valliere
June 28, 2023
YET THESE DEVELOPMENTS AREN’T LIKELY TO HURT TRUMP, who is far ahead of the GOP field for the 2024 nomination — and is roughly tied in polls on the general election. A Morning Consult poll yesterday showed Trump with a 3 point lead over Joe Biden — and suddenly Democrats in this town are worrying that Trump could win re-election.
THAT PROSPECT IS TIED TO THE ECONOMY: The labor market is red-hot, inflation has subsided, and a recession doesn’t appear to be imminent, yet voters give President Biden dismal scores on his handling of the economy. This begs the question of why the Biden team has done such a poor job of selling the economy’s strength.
IN POLL AFTER POLL, voters complain that Biden hasn’t done anything (which is demonstrably untrue) and hasn’t done enough to help the economy, which has prompted party leaders to demand an aggressive White House sales pitch, which apparently will begin today. The president will unveil “Bidenomics,” claiming that his actions have avoided recession.
AN ARGUMENT THAT THE ECONOMY actually is solid will appeal to many Democrats, but a majority of likely voters still haven’t recovered from inflation anxiety, and much of the media seems to accept a narrative that the economy is shaky. So Biden will pitch government programs — the I-95 highway was fixed in two weeks, drug benefits are helping senior citizens, etc.
POLITICIANS HAVE TO BE CAREFUL not to boast about the economy, because not everyone is doing well, and there’s a fear that inflation is still a threat, as Jerome Powell reminds us virtually daily. Is the problem the message or the messenger? It’s a close call, as is the next election. Trump has a chance of winning.
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MUST READING THIS MORNING: Check out the New York Times article on intrigue among Russian generals, some of whom may have been leaning toward supporting Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted coup.
SPECULATION IS SWIRLING around Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine. Current and former U.S. officials say Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising unless he believed that generals and others in positions of power would come to his aid. The article reads like a spy novel, and leaves a strong impression that more instability is likely.
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