The Trump Indictments — Four Key Points
Author: Greg Valliere
August 15, 2023
1. AN ELECTION IN 2024 LIKE NO OTHER: There’s virtually no chance that all four of the Donald Trump indictments can be resolved before next year’s election on Nov. 5. Some of the trials won’t begin until next year; there are serious and complicated issues — racketeering, conspiracy, alleged violations of the RICO law.
THE FOUR MAJOR TRUMP INDICTMENTS — with 91 specific charges — could take well over a year to resolve; appeals could take still another year. Trump is a master of dragging out court cases.
MOST LEGAL EXPERTS believe Trump could run — and serve — as president even if he’s in the middle of a trial; in fact, most experts believe he could serve as president from jail, and he also could pardon himself in federal cases.
2. SPECULATION WILL BEGIN IMMEDIATELY about possible plea deals from the 18 Trump associates who were indicted yesterday. Will some of them flip? We think the answer is yes; the prospect of serving jail time will be a powerful incentive to cut deals. Who flips? This is the angle we’ll be watching in the fall.
3. COULD TRUMP THROW IN THE TOWEL? There’s been growing speculation that the former president may seek a settlement before these four cases are brought to trial, but quitting is not part of his game. We’d be shocked if Trump seeks a plea deal. He’ll stick with his argument that he’s the victim of a witch hunt, hoping that his base in the House stays loyal.
4. GAMING OUT THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION is even more head-spinning this morning. We still think Trump is the favorite to win the GOP nomination, but he’s damaged goods and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin may jump into the race this fall. If Trump is the nominee, could he win the general election against vulnerable Joe Biden? Can’t rule that out — but with each new disclosure, more and more voters say they don’t want Trump to serve again.
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