An Early Look at Donald Trump’s Agenda — It Starts With Tax Cuts
Author: Greg Valliere
September 12, 2023
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER TRUMP PRESIDENCY — even as he faces an avalanche of indictments and lawsuits — has prompted a focus on several issues that would be dominant should he win: reducing aid to Ukraine, ending illegal immigration, killing Biden regulatory reforms, and — perhaps most intriguing — reducing taxes.
THE OLD TAX-CUTTING GANG IS BACK: Art Laffer, Steven Moore, Larry Kudlow, David Malpass, Grover Norquist and other think-tank conservatives are urging Trump to campaign on a promise of cutting individual and corporate taxes, even though the latter is not popular.
SEVERAL REPORTS IN RECENT DAYS — including a lengthy analysis in today’s Washington Post — indicate that the supply side veterans want to expand Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. How to pay for this? A 10% tariff on all goods coming into the U.S. would provide the revenue needed to lower corporate taxes to 15%, these advisers contend.
WHETHER TAX CUTS COULD WIN SUPPORT in Congress is unclear. Democrats are narrowly favored to recapture the House next year, a result of redistricting and abortion bans. And many Senate Republicans — worried about surging budget deficits, now close to $2 trillion annually — could unite with Democrats to block any new tax cuts.
THIS MUCH SEEMS CERTAIN: Tax policy will be a dominant issue in the 2024 election, as both parties fight over the expiring Trump cuts. Provisions set to expire include credits for corporate investment, as well as a large number of individual provisions set to expire in 2025, including the doubling of the standard deduction and a larger Child Tax Credit.
IT’S TOO EARLY TO START PLANNING ON TAX CUTS, but Trump will campaign as the candidate who wants lower individual taxes, an issue that could have Biden on the defensive.
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