The Theme This Week — Grasping at Straws
Author: Greg Valliere
September 25, 2023
McCARTHY SIMPLY DOESN’T HAVE THE VOTES, but he will grasp at straws this week, attempting to pass four appropriations funding bills tomorrow: Defense, State, Homeland Security and an agriculture bill. McCarthy thinks that passing four spending measures would be viewed by hard-line conservatives as a sign of good faith. Good luck with that.
McCARTHY’s GOAL IS TO then pass a monthlong funding bill that would be paired with a GOP border bill and creation of a debt commission. During a call Saturday with his members, he suggested a continuing resolution that would last for 45 days, which would give the House more time to pass full-year funding bills and negotiate with the White House and Senate. McCarthy can afford only three or four Republican defections on this idea, and does not have the votes.
EVEN IF HOUSE ULTRA-CONSERVATIVES cave in and approve a continuing spending resolution, which is unlikely, it’s doubtful that the Senate will go along. So we think there’s a 75% chance of a shutdown on Sunday morning. Why aren’t we at 90%? McCarthy is a shrewd tactician and he might get an extension into late fall. But with the Senate adamantly opposed to the kind of deal McCarthy is seeking, this crisis could last well into the winter.
THE INEVITABLE DEAL, in our opinion, would be a compromise that brings Democrats into the mix, which would jeopardize McCarthy’s Speakership. Compromising with the Democrats is REALLY grasping at straws, and it might take an extended shutdown to bring Congress to that.
STILL ANOTHER DRAMA this week will be the GOP presidential debate on Wednesday, which will begin to thin out the crowd of candidates. The candidate to watch will be Ron DeSantis, who desperately needs a strong showing. The best debater in this mediocre field is Nikki Haley, who could secure second place — and a potential vice presidential nomination. For the others, Wednesday night may be their last chance.
THE BIGGEST POLITICAL STORY THIS WEEKEND was the astonishing Washington Post-ABC News presidential poll, which showed Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden by 10 points in a head-to-head matchup. Other polls show the race roughly tied, so the Post conceded that their survey might be an outlier. But it might not be.
WHAT’S CLEAR IS THAT BIDEN has been in free-fall since late summer. It’s not just his age — it’s inflation, 8,000 illegal immigrants entering the U.S. daily, Hunter Biden’s legal troubles, urban crime, etc. Democrats we talked with this weekend contend that it’s early and that Biden’s numbers could improve. They add, off-the-record, that they would prefer another nominee — but state filing deadlines are fast approaching and it looks like it’s too late to stop Biden.
FINAL COMMENT: How can you respect Congress when it passes a dress code to appease Sen. John Fetterman, who would look like a slob even at a local bowling alley? And then there’s sleazy New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez, who likes gold bars and $100 bills and his Mercedes. Again, you can’t make this stuff up.
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