A Major Reason Why Biden Can Win Re-election
Author: Greg Valliere
November 28, 2023
TRUMP SURPRISED REPUBLICANS during the Thanksgiving weekend when he complained bitterly that Congress hasn’t abolished Obamacare, which he vowed to do if he’s re-elected. GOP Senators, who were caught off-guard, know that Obamacare is popular with their constituents, and there’s no alternative that has any chance of passage.
FOR MANY DEMOCRATS IN THIS TOWN, who are demoralized by Biden’s terrible poll numbers, Trump’s comments were viewed as a gift — an unforced error. “Thank you Mr. Trump,” one Democrat exclaimed after Trump said he is “seriously looking at alternatives” — even though most Republicans in Congress have no alternatives and have absolutely no desire to re-visit the issue.
THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT was signed into law in 2010 by President Barack Obama. The legislation expanded health insurance coverage and now covers 31 million people. About 60% of the public supports the plan, so the Biden campaign will launch TV ads later this week warning that Trump may kill it.
ANOTHER ISSUE THAT DEMOCRATS PLAN TO EXPLOIT is Social Security, which some Republicans want to reform; Biden is weighing an expansion of benefits. Even modest GOP reforms are politically risky — efforts by Paul Ryan and others to make even slight changes in the calculation for the COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) failed badly a decade ago.
LIKE OBAMACARE, SOCIAL SECURITY also enjoys strong support, and Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of launching ads that claim Trump will cut benefits. Many progressives are urging Biden to preserve benefits or perhaps even expand them, paid for with tax hikes on “the rich.” Trump is more cautious on Social Security; he previously has vowed not to cut any benefits. A small but vocal number of Republicans in Congress want to make some cuts.
BOTTOM LINE: After relentlessly pounding Biden on his age, crime, immigration, and fears over inflation, the Republicans have to worry that on some policies, Trump can be a blessing and a curse for them. He goes off script frequently, and when the issue is a popular program like Obamacare, Biden suddenly has an opening.
SO THE DEMOCRATS WILL BLAST AWAY, with saturation TV ads in battleground states. The Republicans, surprisingly, don’t have much money for ads while the Democrats are flush with cash. Biden still has a chance to win.
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