![For Print Only Logo](/wp-content/uploads/AGF_EN_FIRE_CHARCOAL_RGB-print.png)
Progress on Spending Bills: Logjam Breaking?
Author: Greg Valliere
January 8, 2024
NEVERTHELESS, THE INCREASINGLY INFLUENTIAL JOHNSON is betting that he can get spending bills passed before deadlines hit on Jan. 19 and Feb. 2, which would avoid a government shutdown.
AS MEMBERS OF CONGRESS RETURN TO WASHINGTON TODAY, this is still a fluid narrative, boiling down to a key issue: are you an optimist or a pessimist?
IF YOU’RE AN OPTIMIST, the deal announced yesterday evening is the beginning of a process that will produce a 2024 budget of about $1.66 trillion, with modest spending restraint, and a side-deal that will get close to $100 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and other U.S. allies — combined with immigration reform.
IF YOU’RE A PESSIMIST, you have to worry that this compromise will crash and burn, with a shutdown looming soon and Johnson facing a rebellion among House conservatives who are demanding reforms on the U.S.-Texas border.
OUR TAKE IS THAT there probably isn’t enough time to get all of this done in January; a continuing spending resolution is a likely option, delaying a final package until later this winter — but deferring a shutdown.
THERE’S ONE HUGE WILD CARD: The ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus is not on board; at least 20 members indicated last night that they would not approve Johnson’s compromise, and he only has three or four votes to spare.
SO THE NEW HOUSE SPEAKER will have to twist arms to get more GOP support for his deal, or he will have to rely on Democrats to provide the votes needed for the package. Kevin McCarthy tried that tactic and lost his job.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: If there are signs of a compromise this week on immigration, the logjam could break. Democrats are ready — almost eager — to compromise on this issue; members of both parties have been working behind the scenes on a compromise. Let’s see if Republican conservatives will take yes for an answer.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.