Why Donald Trump Was Furious Last Night
Author: Greg Valliere
January 24, 2024
IT WASN’T QUITE A LANDSLIDE, but Donald Trump’s solid victory in New Hampshire has essentially wrapped up his Republican nomination. Yet Trump was angry last night, for good reason. He expected to become the presumptive nominee today, but instead it appears that he will have to play defense against Nikki Haley’s relentless criticism for weeks to come.
ASSUMING HALEY STAYS IN THE RACE, she will be on CNN every couple of days. She will be on the Sunday talk shows. And she will hammer away at Trump’s age, his indifference to budget deficits, his court trials, his hard-line stance on abortion, etc.
TRUMP HAD HOPED to focus on fundraising by the end of this week; now he has to respond to Haley. So Trump was angry last night — he even mocked Haley’s dress.
HALEY EVENTUALLY WILL DROP OUT — she has little chance of winning her home state of South Carolina on Feb. 24 — and probably will be ousted after Super Tuesday, March 5. But she has plenty of campaign funds, and by staying in the race, she softens Trump up for the general election on Nov. 5.
THE LONGER THE CAMPAIGN LASTS, the greater the risk that Trump will say something incendiary. He said last night that Haley “should be investigated,” and said she is “an impostor.” He added: “You can’t let people get away with bull— and he complained that independents in New Hampshire voted against him “just to make me look as bad as possible.”
THE MAJOR TAKE-AWAY LAST NIGHT was Trump’s potential weakness in November. He has a real problem with independent voters, college graduates, suburban moderates and others who sent a message in New Hampshire. There’s no question that Trump has an adoring base of voters, but that base may not be sufficient to win the general election.
KEY ISSUES TILT TOWARD TRUMP: A key theme last night, and perhaps for the entire campaign, will be illegal immigration. The Democrats want a bill but most Republicans are content to wait, keeping it as their strongest issue.
AS FOR JOE BIDEN, he escaped last night without a serious challenger. Rep. Dean Phillips vowed to continue his campaign, but Biden has won the Democrats’ nomination, just as Trump has won the GOP nod. Phillips may have won 20% of the write-in vote; Marianne Williamson may have won 5%.
BOTTOM LINE: Trump will be the nominee; only a health issue could prevent Biden or Trump from running against each other. It’s way too early to make a call on the general election; there will be plenty of momentum swings in the months to come.
FOR NOW, we’ll say that Trump has a plausible chance of winning — but there were enough signals from New Hampshire to persuade us that it’s way too early to count out Biden.
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