Huge Trump Lead in Primaries; Ukraine Aid Still Has a Chance
Author: Greg Valliere
February 20, 2024
THE NUMBERS ARE EYE-POPPING: Donald Trump enjoys huge leads in most key primary states, pointing to a landslide on Super Tuesday, March 5. Nikki Haley has made modest progress in her home state of South Carolina, but there’s little chance she could win the Feb. 24 primary.
TRUMP’S STAGGERING FINES, which could approach a half billion dollars, have simply angered his supporters, who believe there’s a conspiracy against him. As for Ukraine’s dire straits and the assassination of Alexei Navalny, there’s no sign that there’s been a major impact on GOP voters.
THE NEXT BIG POLITICAL EVENT COMES ON SATURDAY, when South Carolina holds its primary. Based on recent polls that show some improvement in Haley’s standing, we think she will lose by only 20 points; she had trailed by twice that amount a month ago.
RECENT POLLS SHOW HALEY TRAILING BADLY IN OTHER STATES: Trump leads by roughly 60 points in Florida, Georgia and Ohio, and is ahead by nearly 50 points in Arizona and Illinois. Even if Trump’s numbers slide in the next couple of weeks, there’s little chance that Haley could come close in any state other than South Carolina, Maine, Massachusetts and Vermont.
THEN COMES SUPER TUESDAY, WITH PRIMARIES on March 5 in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. Trump should win most of those states by 30-50 points. The issue will quickly focus on when Haley will drop out. Her scathing attacks on Trump have angered the party’s establishment, which will demand her withdrawal by early March.
DESPITE TRUMP’S HUGE LEAD among Republicans, he’s only the slight favorite in the general election. His comments on NATO and his refusal to support Ukraine and Russian dissidents have concerned moderates, who are the key to his re-election prospects. But winning the nomination will be a breeze — Trump will wrap that up next month.
* * * * *
PRESSURE IS MOUNTING on House Speaker Mike Johnson to hold a vote on aid to Ukraine when Congress returns to Washington later this month. The Senate has already passed an aid package, and a majority in the House wants to vote. Johnson, on thin ice with his colleagues, is reluctant to schedule a vote but we think he will relent in early March.
WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE that a Ukraine aid bill of about $60 billion can pass within a month, although it could take several weeks as House Republicans grapple with a border/immigration provision. Whether Johnson can keep his job is unclear, as a handful of House radicals vow to kill any Ukraine bill; they also oppose aid to Israel, which has lost support in recent weeks.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
