The Most Important Speech in Joe Biden’s Career
Author: Greg Valliere
March 7, 2024
IT’S NOT AN EXAGGERATION to assert that Joe Biden’s State of the Union address tonight will be the most important speech in his long political career.
IT’S A LATE SPEECH and won’t be finished until after 10 p.m., when Biden is usually asleep (we recommend espresso tonight). The tipoff will come early — will Biden succeed in breaking the tension with humor and vigor as he begins the speech?
WHY ARE THE STAKES SO HIGH? In private, Democrats in this town still want another candidate — perhaps one of the many Democratic governors (not Gavin Newsom) who continue to appeal to the Democratic establishment.
THESE NERVOUS DEMOCRATS will erupt tomorrow if Biden stumbles tonight. If the speech is adequate, the Democrats will be stuck with him — and the prospect that they could lose both houses in the general election.
THE ISSUES: White House officials have been inundated by emails and phone calls from party leaders around the country who have suggestions for the speech.
IN LIGHT of elections in the past year, they believe that abortion rights will be a huge theme this fall, and you can be sure Biden will emphasize the issue tonight. He believes the Republicans are far too strident on abortion, and the public agrees.
THE PRESIDENT AND HIS ADVISERS should be able to make a case that the economy has improved, but this is an argument that falls on deaf ears. If Biden talks up the economy, some viewers will consider him out of touch with the persistent anxiety about inflation.
BRAGGING ABOUT INFLATION will get him nowhere, because voters believe (correctly) that inflation is still rising, at a lower pace, which isn’t the same as actually falling.
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BIDEN TONIGHT will be to appeal to Nikki Haley’s supporters, who told polltakers earlier in the week that they have major reservations about voting for Trump in the general election.
TRUMP WAS UNGRACIOUS two nights ago, not congratulating Haley for her campaign, but he needs to pivot and appeal to her supporters — because if Trump can’t win moderate suburbanites, he probably cannot win the general election.
A TOUGH SELL FOR THE PRESIDENT TONIGHT may be his call for about $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and others. A major political shift appears to be underway: American voters, especially young men, are increasingly isolationist, and they also are lukewarm about more aid to Israel. If Biden is out of step with the public on this issue, it will hurt him in November.
AN EVEN TOUGHER SELL will be Biden’s ongoing damage control over immigration. He will make one last plea for a compromise bill, but that ship probably has sailed. Immigration is now the Number One issue with voters, who blame Biden for not moving on the issue — or crime — earlier in his presidency.
IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, this speech will be about the impression Biden makes — could he actually use his age as an asset — could he seem wise and tough? Could he use humor to his advantage? Or will he just read from a teleprompter? By tomorrow morning the impressions will take hold, and if there’s a sense of disappointment, there will be still another round of anxiety from Democrats who want regime change.
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