The Electoral Narrative Has Suddenly Changed
Author: Greg Valliere
March 8, 2024
IN AN ASTONISHINGLY FIERCE PERFORMANCE, Joe Biden has changed the election narrative overnight. Some analysts are claiming that Biden was too strident and partisan last night, and that may be true — but it misses the point: Biden was feisty and angry and vigorous, not a frail old man on the edge of dementia.
JUST 24 HOURS AGO, Democrats were terrified that Biden would stumble, but he didn’t. He was so aggressive that he mocked Republicans and took on hecklers; he seemed to be itching for a fight. Frail old man? We don’t think so.
WE DON’T WANT TO OVER-REACT TO ONE SPEECH, just as Jerome Powell doesn’t over-react to one economic statistic. But we think Biden did himself a world of good, even though he did little to appeal to Nikki Haley supporters.
POLLS USUALLY SHOW THE PERCEIVED WINNER after these speeches gains only two or three percentage points. But that would probably place Biden and Trump in a dead heat as the spring begins. Trump had a modest lead as this week began.
BIDEN’s AIDES WILL BE TEMPTED TO GO UNDERGROUND THIS SPRING; his advisers don’t want him freelancing with unscripted comments. That’s why they kept him away from the pre-Super Bowl media interviews.
FOR MOST DEMOCRATS RUNNING THIS FALL, there’s a sense of relief this morning that a GOP House and Senate sweep is now less likely. Biden blasted away on the Democrats’ top issue — abortion rights, an issue that has produced a fierce backlash that could hurt the GOP’s prospects this fall.
NOW THAT BIDEN CLEARED HIS FIRST MAJOR TEST, he will need to focus on other issues, such as Ukraine, immigration and urban crime. Trump may not spend much time talking about specific prescriptions; he has court dates and cash shortages to worry about.
THE MESSAGE WAS CRYSTAL CLEAR LAST NIGHT: Biden and most Democrats are prepared to play hardball, and suddenly the race is tied. One speech, usually boring, has changed the narrative — and throughout Washington this morning, Democrats are breathing easier. The age issue has diminished as the dominant theme.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
