A Momentum Shift Toward Biden
Author: Greg Valliere
March 27, 2024
WE EXPECT SEVERAL MOMENTUM SHIFTS in the presidential race, as each candidate makes a gaffe a day. A very interesting new Bloomberg poll shows we may be in a momentum shift right now — toward Joe Biden.
IT COULD BE SUMMER OR LATER before we’re comfortable making a call on the election; the race could be essentially tied for months to come. But this new poll — which sampled 5,000 respondents — showed Donald Trump’s lead has either stalled or slipped a bit in most of the Battleground States.
THERE WERE TWO SIGNIFICANT FINDINGS IN THE BLOOMBERG POLL: First, there was a 6% increase in March in the percentage of people who think the economy is improving — potentially a major trend for Biden. Much of this poll was taken as the stock market hit record highs.
SECOND, WHILE TRUMP RETAINS STRONG SUPPORT among his loyal base, Democrats may be shifting — Biden’s supporters won’t necessarily vote for him, but rather against Trump. This could lessen the lack of enthusiasm for Biden; you can be sure that negative ads will dominate the rest of the campaign. Whoever has the highest negative ratings usually loses.
DURING THE WINTER, Trump had a 4% lead in Wisconsin; now Biden leads there by one point. And the race has gone from a slight lead for Trump to a tie in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump still leads narrowly in the crucial states of Georgia and North Carolina.
WHY THE MOMENTUM SHIFT? It started earlier this month after Biden’s surprisingly vigorous State of the Union address, which may have dispelled some concerns about his age. And Biden has raised an astonishing amount of money, about $150 million, allowing him to campaign and advertise in the Battleground States while Trump is bogged down in court.
BOTTOM LINE: Trump probably has a small lead nationwide, but there’s now a case that Biden can amass the 270 electoral votes needed to win by carrying several Great Lake states, which usually is the path to victory.
AND IN STATE AFTER STATE in recent months, the Republicans have been battered by a view that they’re too strident on abortion — perhaps a key issue of the campaign, almost as potent as immigration.
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING CLOSE TO A TIE on November 5 makes us shudder — there will be inevitable cries of voting irregularities, with recounts nearly certain and probably no clear winner for days after the election. We saw that movie in 2020 — and we prefer not to see it again.
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