A Significant Poll Still Tilts Toward Trump
Author: Greg Valliere
May 13, 2024
PEOPLE ALWAYS ASK US — which polls are the most reliable? All have problems with sampling errors, but the data we look at every morning comes from the RealClearPolitics (RCP) web site, which is an amalgamation of every major poll in the country, and is fairly reliable at catching trends.
EVEN WITH LIKELY SAMPLING ERRORS, the trend is crucial, and it hasn’t budged since Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech in late winter, when he got a little bump. While the trend is crucial, we look at one poll more than all the others: RCP’s no tossup-map, which offers a running take on the Electoral College that relies on polls in all 50 states — no toss-ups allowed.
IT TAKES 270 ELECTORAL VOTES TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY, and the latest RCP no tossup projection gives Donald Trump 312 electoral votes to Joe Biden’s 226, a significant — but not insurmountable — advantage for Trump.
INCREDIBLY, ONLY 19 OF THE 50 STATES are in Biden’s column, with the president trailing in the key states of Pennsylvania (19 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), and Michigan (15 votes). If Biden won all three and other states where he’s leading, he would be at exactly 270 votes.
OTHER STATES COULD TIP THE ELECTION TO TRUMP: He could win re-election without Wisconsin or Michigan if he won New Hampshire (4 votes) and Virginia (13), both of which are in the Democrats’ column on RCP. But Biden probably would have to win Pennsylvania to make up for losing Wisconsin or Michigan. The RCP web site — like many others — is free and interactive, so you can mix and match the states necessary to win 270.
WILD CARDS: Maine and Nebraska each have a separate congressional district that could grant one electoral vote. A third party candidate could scramble the results in a state like Wisconsin. Neither of the candidates — or Robert F. Kennedy, for that matter — have been transparent about their health. These and other wild cards — especially the daily gaffes — make this election too close to call.
BUT PENNSYLVANIA is the crucial prize, which is why Biden and Trump will virtually live there until Nov. 5. Can either of them win the presidency without Pennsylvania? You stare at the RCP map and have to conclude that it will be very difficult for Biden to win the general election without Pennsylvania — and even if he wins there, he still faces an uphill battle in several other states.
BIDEN TRAILS by 1.2% nationally in the RCP poll and is behind by 3.1% in the battleground states. It’s not an exaggeration to say this race is nearly a tie, and it’s not an exaggeration to say that the country — and the financial markets — might recoil at the prospect of a near-tie that drags this election into December or later.
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