Israel’s Retaliation
Author: Greg Valliere
October 2, 2024
GEOPOLITICAL EXPERTS are virtually unanimous: Israel will aggressively retaliate against Iran probably within days. Israel is expected to act; to do nothing would be a huge surprise.
ISRAEL NOW HAS A FREER HAND to respond forcefully to Iran’s missile barrage on Tuesday than it did in April, security analysts and former officials say, when its retaliation for the previous Iranian attack was a largely symbolic strike against an air-defense installation in Iran.
IN APRIL, Israel was worried that issuing too intense of a response would prompt Iran to order its proxy militias — particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon — to retaliate extensively.
BUT AFTER LAUNCHING a bombing campaign that killed Hezbollah’s leader and other commanders last week, along with a ground invasion overnight Tuesday, Israel has crushed Hezbollah, stripping Iran of much of its deterrence against a wider Israeli attack, the New York Times reports this morning.
THE TIMES SPECULATES that the Biden administration may urge Israel to curb its response. But with American elections fast approaching, it’s increasingly unlikely that Biden can dissuade the Israelis.
QUOTING A MIDEAST EXPERT, the Times says “this is an escalation whose end is difficult to foresee,” He said “Israel’s action will almost certainly trigger another Iranian response. We appear to be at the start of forceful confrontation between us and the Iranians.”
BUT AFTER IRAN FIRED ABOUT 180 missiles in an attack that went on for roughly half an hour, Israel’s challenge was not whether to attack Iran, but how powerfully to respond.
THE ONLY QUESTION, one expert said, is “how much can we harm them versus their capacity to harm us.” He added he believed that the damage Israel inflicted on Hezbollah had diminished the threat of Iran’s proxies.
EVEN AN ATTACK on Iran’s nuclear facilities — long a source of fear for Israel, which worries about Tehran gaining a nuclear weapon — should be considered,” several experts believe.
SOME EXPEERTS, including Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister, wrote on social media that Israel was facing “the biggest opportunity in the past 50 years” to change the face of the region.
“WE MUST ACT NOW “ to destroy Iran’s nuclear project, destroy their major energy facilities and critically hit this terrorist regime,” Mr. Bennett said. “The tentacles of that octopus are severely wounded — now’s the time to aim for the head,” he said.
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HARD TO SAY who won the debate last night; Sen. JD Vance seemed sharp and aggressive until the very end, when he refused to say whether Donald Trump won the 2020 election. Neither Vance nor Tim Walz hurt their ticket, but this was a very forgettable debate.
WALZ SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE, to be diplomatic, but there’s another political development that has raised eyebrows — Trump has wandered off in recent speeches, getting names confused and seeming very tired. This morning’s Washington Post contains a troubling account of what appears to be Trump’s descent.
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