Volodymyr Zelensky Miscalculates
Author: Greg Valliere
March 3, 2025
REGULAR READERS KNOW WE’RE HUGE FANS of Volodymyr Zelensky, a hero in a world that has very few. But he’s human, and often rises to the bait, as he did last Friday.
ZELENSKY COULDN’T RESTRAIN himself after provocations from JD Vance. And Zelensky committed a cardinal sin: he failed to praise Donald Trump, who’s not used to being addressed disrespectfully.
YET WE THINK TALKS CAN GET BACK ON TRACK later this month, because Trump needs a deal, as does Zelensky. The obvious fact that they hate each other can be overcome.
WE TALKED WITH SOURCES OVER THE WEEKEND WHO BELIEVE a deal is still close on the transfer of precious metals from Ukraine to the U.S., along with a modest re-drawing of Ukraine’s eastern border. Security guarantees will be difficult.
A UNITED EUROPE will make a difference; it will be a deterrent in thwarting Russia from seeking more territory. And the prospect of lifting sanctions that have been imposed on Russia’s crippled economy will appeal to Vladimir Putin.
AS FOR TRUMP, he’s correct — he holds the high cards and will not relent until Zelensky publicly apologizes for his performance in the White House. But Trump, who promised a deal in days, also needs a victory.
TRUMP HAS OTHER ISSUES TO ADDRESS — his speech before Congress tomorrow night, the imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, probably tomorrow, and a looming budget crisis.
THERE’S NO IMMINENT VICTORY for him on the budget, which still looks like a train wreck, and the tariffs may worry the U.S. public, which still thinks the economy is mediocre, with no improvement in inflation.
THE KEY PLAYERS ARE REPUBLICAN MEMBERS of Congress, who — in private — are beginning to view Trump as an irritant; their constituents are uneasy.
SO A UKRAINE DEAL would be welcome by all of the players, especially with Putin in a position where he can claim victory. But a deal would require Zelensky to curb his outrage over the slaughter. He doesn’t have much of a choice.
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