The Five Big Issues This Spring
Author: Greg Valliere
April 17, 2025
HISTORIANS CONSIDER APRIL to be among the most consequential months of the year– an argument made frequently by Jay Winik at Yale. It looks like 2025 will continue that turbulent pattern.
Here are the five big issues that loom this spring:
1. Trump vs. the Judiciary: A crisis is brewing between the Trump Administration and the courts; White House officials are eager to challenge court restrictions against the treatment of undocumented immigrants.
It seems that an enormous Constitutional rift is looming — it’s only a matter of time, as Trump refuses to comply with a court ruling or cooperate with a judge’s insistence for documents.
This is not a frivolous legal fight; it raises the issue of what would happen if a court finds Trump is in contempt. Democrats already are whispering about impeachment, but the public doesn’t want it. “We’re headed for uncharted waters,” a Republican House staffer tells us.
2. Tariffs — the self-inflicted wound: Trump and his aides had no idea that the stock market push-back could be so intense, and now there’s a desire to negotiate with U.S. trade partners.
Trump needs an exit ramp on this issue, and he will begin serious trade talks this month; Japan is first, and other countries are eager to cut deals.
Trump can claim victories, but any meaningful deal with China is not imminent. Trump is great at destroying policies he doesn’t like, but trade negotiations could take months or even years to rebuild.
Real damage has been done to the global trading network, as Trump aides contradicted each other earlier this spring. Meanwhile, traditional allies like Canada are fuming.
3. Recession or no recession: Yesterday’s strong retail sales data may have reflected stockpiling by businesses ahead of the tariffs, but the underlying economy is still growing modestly.
Statistics from this spring may show soft GDP growth, but it’s difficult to make a case that a recession is imminent with the unemployment rate at 4.2% and tax stimulus coming in the summer.
4. Jerome Powell’s job status. We continue to believe the Trump Administration wants to oust the Fed Chairman; his opponents are citing an obscure court case that would give the White House its excuse to fire him (see Greg Ip’s excellent analysis in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal).
The financial markets, still reeling from tariffs, could face another crisis if Powell is ousted. Yet Trump’s loose-lipped economic aides are talking openly about replacing Powell before his term expires next spring.
5. Geopolitics in chaos: The carnage persists in Ukraine and Gaza, with no cessation in sight. Trump set the bar high, and has nothing to show for it. When your best option is to deal with Iran, that speaks volumes about the rest of the geopolitical agenda.
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