Confusion Grips Washington
Author: Greg Valliere
June 18, 2025
PERHAPS THE MOST PERPLEXING ISSUE IS THE White House reversal of last week’s directive that kept loose standards on undocumented immigrant workers.
AFTER INTENSE LOBBYING from executives in the hotel, restaurant, and agricultural industries, an uproar from hard-right MAGA Trump aides like Stephen Miller resulted in a reversal. The relaxed immigration standards have been scrapped.
THE CLIMATE IN THE LABOR MARKET WILL STAY UNCERTAIN, which surely will make it difficult for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to set policy.
ANOTHER SOURCE OF CONFUSION is whether the Trump Administration is prepared to join the conflict with Iran. Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender” has to be backed with more than words.
CONFUSION HAS BEEN DOMINANT ON THE TRADE FRONT; a July 9 deadline for deals with nearly 100 countries is woefully behind schedule. Trump will have to extend the deadline; if he doesn’t a debilitating trade war will erupt. Thus far only 2 countries — China and the U.K. — have shown signs of signing deals later this year.
THIS PERVASIVE UNCERTAINTY DOES NOT BODE WELL for negotiations in the next two week on the Big Beautiful Bill, which is clearly lost altitude in recent weeks.
WITH CONFUSION EVERYWHERE, we’re anxious to hear from Powell today. He’s in a bind — the economy appears to be softening and virtually all policy issues in Washington are unclear.
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