Here We Go Again — Deadline Approaches on Budget; Kyrsten Sinema Switches
Author: Greg Valliere
December 12, 2022
BOTH PARTIES ARE STILL ABOUT $50 BILLION APART on non-defense spending, but that could be resolved (on the high side) within a week or so. The bigger issue involves what kind of a budget deal will prevail.
THIS IS ARCANE, BUT IN A NUTSHELL: Democrats want an omnibus bill, which would contain everything but the kitchen sink — from child tax credits to federal permitting reform for energy projects. Republicans want a simple continuing resolution (CR), keeping the government open through the holidays, with spending frozen at 2022 levels.
REPUBLICANS WANT A CR THAT might drag on until well into next year, setting up a huge clash by summer over extending the federal debt ceiling — or else. An impasse over spending restraint would revive threats of debt default, which is highly unlikely, but a potentially nasty headline risk.
THERE’S STILL TIME TO GET A DEAL on this year’s budget, but not by the Dec. 16 deadline. If a deal isn’t reached by the next deadline, Dec. 23, a CR extending into early 2023 is likely; a Christmas Eve government shutdown is unlikely. The Big Picture take-away: the pendulum is shifting toward spending restraint.
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THIS ANNUAL MID-DECEMBER BUDGET FIASCO was enlivened last Friday when Kyrsten Sinema announced that she’s an independent, not a Democrat. This annoyed her many detractors, but it really won’t change much. Sinema will continue to caucus with Democrats; the party will keep its Senate majority and control of committees.
SINEMA IS INTENSELY UNPOPULAR among Arizona Democrats; she almost certainly was headed to defeat in the party’s 2024 primary. By running as an independent, she will have an outside chance of keeping her seat.
COULD JOE MANCHIN CONSIDER A SWITCH? That potentially would scramble the Senate math, but we’re hearing that Manchin has no interest in leaving the Democrats — even though he faces a very difficult re-election battle in 2024 in West Virginia.
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