U.S. Relations With China Hit Rock Bottom; How Donald Trump Could Rip the GOP Apart
Author: Greg Valliere
February 3, 2023
WE HAVE WRITTEN FREQUENTLY that the antipathy toward Beijing in this city is bipartisan — both parties favor a tougher stance against China, which may be the outcome in this new crisis. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a fierce China critic, has threatened to visit Taiwan later this year, which undoubtedly would inflame tensions between both sides.
PROSPECTS HAVE WORSENED for any liberalization of trade relations between the U.S. and China. In fact, even more sanctions are possible as a new Congressional committee investigates China’s behavior toward dissidents, its lack of transparency on Covid, and its relentless spying on the U.S., especially American companies.
SECRETARY OF STATE Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit China in upcoming days, but it’s possible he may postpone the trip, which was designed in part to pressure China to speak out as both sides suffer appalling casualties in the Ukraine war.
RUSSIA HAS LOST nearly 200,000 killed or wounded, yet is about to mount a new offensive as poorly trained young men are thrown into a meat grinder; Ukraine has suffered at least 100,000 killed or wounded in action along with 30,000 civilian deaths, according to a report in this morning’s New York Times.
THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODIC REPORTS that Xi Jinping has privately pressured Russia to begin negotiations to end the fighting, but in public the Chinese have expressed support for Moscow’s disastrous war. Now China faces more isolation as its spy balloon inflames U.S. politicians.
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TRUMP’S BIG GAMBLE: With several major Republicans preparing to challenge Donald Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, the former president has announced that if he doesn’t win, he won’t necessarily support the party’s nominee.
TRUMP WANTS TO APPEAL TO HIS DWINDLING BASE, which still views him, adoringly, as an outsider. But there was a sharp pushback yesterday from establishment Republicans to Trump’s assertion that he might not support the nominee. Even Mitch McConnell, a fierce Trump critic, has vowed to support the nominee, even if it’s Trump.
THERE’S A SUSPICION that Trump may withhold his endorsement as the prelude to launching a third party run, despite the high cost and complicated logistics of running as an independent. Trump’s chances of winning the presidency would fall significantly if he launched a third party, which would thrill the Democrats.
AT THIS EARLY STAGE, Trump wants to define his opponents. He already is bashing Ron DeSantis, who we consider the early favorite, as disloyal and disingenuous on Florida’s Covid record. Another near-certain candidate, Nikki Haley, earns Trump’s wrath as being disloyal and overly ambitious. Similar arguments will be used against Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, Glenn Youngkin and the rest.
AFTER GETTING OFF TO A SLOW START, drawing small crowds and raising relatively little money, Trump is warming up. We think he could rip the Republican party apart, but he never gave a damn about the party; he simply used it, and it simply used him.
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