The Exodus From Russia
Author: Greg Valliere
February 24, 2023
THE REMARKABLY COURAGEOUS UKRAINIAN MILITARY gets credit for halting the Russian advance, as does the surprising unity in Western Europe and the U.S. Hawks have prevailed — even in the U.S. Congress, which will approve more aid to Kyiv.
BUT THERE’S ONE ASTONISHING DEVELOPMENT that has received relatively little publicity: the mass exodus of horrified Russians, who have fled conscription and the crumbling economy. This could have implications for decades, as talented young Russians make new lives in Armenia, Dubai, Georgia, the Baltic states and elsewhere.
THE WAR CRIMINAL VLADIMIR PUTIN has clamped down on domestic dissent, but just beneath the surface there’s a network of young Russians who are leaving in droves.
THE WASHINGTON POST REPORTS that initial data shows that at least 500,000 — and perhaps nearly 1 million — Russians have left in the year since the invasion began. This is becoming a tidal wave, on a scale with the emigration following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.
NOT OVER YET: The war is nowhere close to ending (China’s offer to broker a truce is not taken seriously in the West). Another wave of conscription is likely, driving even more Russians out of the country.
REFUGEES HAVE FLED to Armenia and Kazakhstan, across borders open to Russians. Some with visas escaped to Finland, the Baltic states or elsewhere in Europe. Others ventured farther, the Post reports. In at least a dozen countries, a vibrant network of Russian expatriates has thrived.
THIS IS STRIPPING RUSSIA of highly skilled workers, especially in the IT sector. Many of these workers, and other wealthy Russians, have fled to Dubai.
THE END GAME: Sophisticated new weapons from the West will keep the Russians from advancing much farther, as poorly trained Russian conscripts die by the hundreds every day. Russia still has a manpower advantage, but troop morale is terrible, just as it was in 1917-18, as the Russian army fled from World War 1.
A DECISIVE VICTORY for either side on the battlefield is not imminent, but a collapse within Russia is continuing. Some elites and Putin supporters want a more aggressive military, but talented young people simply want to leave the country.
THE GENERALS AND OLIGARCHS surely can see the exodus and the extraordinary casualty figures. These generals and oligarchs must realize that they have the power to oust Putin and save Russia.
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