A Breakthrough in the Middle East?
Author: Greg Valliere
February 7, 2024
REPORTS OVERNIGHT INDICATE THAT A TRUCE is possible between combatants in the Israel-Hamas war. Reuters reports that a proposed ceasefire plan would quiet the guns in Gaza for four-and-a-half months, during which all hostages would go free, Israel would withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip and an agreement would be reached on an end to the war.
THE WILD CARD, OF COURSE, is whether the Israelis would accept anything like this or whether it would be viewed as an opportunity for Hamas to re-arm. For now, officials in the region are waiting for a response to an offer sent last week by Qatari and Egyptian diplomats.
A HAMAS COUNTERPROPOSAL envisages three phases of a truce, lasting 45 days each, according to Reuters. Militants would exchange remaining Israeli hostages they captured on Oct. 7 for Palestinian prisoners. The reconstruction of Gaza would begin, Israeli forces would withdraw completely, and bodies and remains would be exchanged.
A SOURCE CLOSE to the negotiations told Reuters that the Hamas counterproposal did not require a guarantee of a permanent ceasefire at the outset, but that an end to the war would have to be agreed upon before the final hostages are freed.
BOTTOM LINE: We’re leery that a truce could hold, and there are militants in Hamas and Israel who aren’t ready to lay down their weapons. But this could be the beginning of back-and-forth negotiations that could lead to a settlement by summer. No such breakthrough is imminent in Ukraine, however.
IN THE MIDEAST BACKGROUND is Iran, which funds Hamas, Hezbollah and the Hutis. U.S. strikes against Iranian targets — and a vow by Washington to do more — may persuade Tehran to tone down its support for terrorist proxies. No one in the region, not even Iran, wants a wider war.
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