Another Revolt in the House
Author: Greg Valliere
January 9, 2024
ONCE AGAIN, A HANDFUL OF HOUSE HARD-LINERS has just enough votes to thwart the Republican leadership and throw the entire Congress into disarray. This happened to John Boehner, Paul Ryan, Kevin McCarthy and now, apparently, Mike Johnson — all conservatives who could not get along with House ultra-conservatives.
MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS reacted angrily yesterday to the news that new speaker Johnson had reached a tentative spending deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — without first notifying his troops. “If this is the best Republicans can do, there’s no hope of ever balancing our budget or securing the border,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the Freedom Caucus, said Tuesday.
JOHNSON ONLY HAS ONLY A TWO OR THREE vote margin in the House, thanks to GOP resignations and illnesses. Our guess is that Johnson could lose 8 to 10 GOP votes on the spending deal, so he may have to resort to a tactic employed by McCarthy and the others: unite with Democrats to get enough votes to avoid a government shutdown later this winter.
THIS WOULD HAVE TWO MAJOR IMPLICATIONS: First, it would incite a handful of Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene to seek Johnson’s ouster, but there aren’t any logical successors. Second, it would embolden Republicans to offer an olive branch to the hard-liners by insisting on a tough immigration bill; without that, there will be no aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and others.
ALL OF THIS MANEUVERING WILL TAKE TIME, which has greatly increased the likelihood of a government shutdown on Jan. 19 for some programs and Fed. 2 for others. As the Wall Street Journal concluded in a blistering editorial this morning, a shutdown would reinforce the GOP’s image as dysfunctional.
A POTENTIAL GAME-CHANGER WOULD BE PASSAGE of an immigration bill, but progress reportedly has stalled; a deal appears to be at least a week away as both parties bicker over issues such as asylum.
SO IT’S BRINKSMANSHIP in Washington as Mike Johnson scrambles for votes from a small obstructionist faction that doesn’t really want a deal on the budget or Ukraine or immigration. If you don’t believe us, just ask John Boehner.
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