Democrats are Heavy Underdogs to Keep the Senate Next Year
Author: Greg Valliere
January 31, 2023
THE CURRENT SENATE IS 51-49 DEMOCRATIC, but our early look at the key races show as many as eight pickup opportunities for the GOP, who — amazingly — have no seats that look particularly vulnerable. For now, we’ll predict a 52-48 seat Senate controlled by the Republicans, and that could be too pessimistic for the GOP.
HERE’S OUR LIST OF VULNERABLE DEMOCRATS:
Joe Manchin of West Virginia, 75, is among the weakest incumbents; it’s unclear whether he will seek re-election.
John Tester of Montana is a good campaigner, but he looks vulnerable in this very conservative state.
Populist Democrat Sherrod Brown of Ohio is another strong campaigner, but he’s running in a state that has clearly leaned Republican in recent years.
Kyrsten Sinema, now an independent, is the underdog in Arizona, where Republicans would benefit from a three-way race.
POSSIBLY VULNERABLE DEMOCRATIC SEATS:
Tim Kaine could have a tough race in Virginia, where Republican Glenn Youngkin scored a stunning upset in the 2021 gubernatorial race.
Incumbent Debbie Stabenow of Michigan has already announced her retirement.
Jacky Rosen in Nevada looks like a very shaky incumbent.
Tammy Baldwin is only a slight favorite among the bitterly divided electorate in Wisconsin.
Bob Casey’s health could be an issue in Pennsylvania, where Senate races are usually very tight.
VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS: There’s virtually none. Ted Cruz will get a good workout in Texas as will Rick Scott in Florida, but both of those states clearly tilt right.
BOTTOM LINE: There’s obviously a long way to go, but for now we think the Democrats will lose at least four seats and the Republicans will lose none — enough for the Senate to flip fairly comfortably.
THIS RAISES THE GOP DREAM SCENARIO: Let’s say they easily take the Senate and maintain their very slim House majority — and let’s say Joe Biden loses re-election, possibly to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Could Republicans thus control the White House, the Senate and the House? We’re not ready to bet on that — but it’s a plausible scenario.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
