Democrats on the Ropes?
Author: Greg Valliere
April 4, 2024
THE MOMENTUM SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH toward Joe Biden has faded, amid signs of deep divisions among Democrats over the Gaza war and persistent fears that inflation still persists.
STILL ANOTHER WAKE-UP CALL came this week in an exhaustive Wall Street Journal poll of the key swing states that showed Biden ahead in only one, Wisconsin. The president trailed in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina.
TO COMPOUND THE DEMORATS’ ANXIETY, the poll showed Biden is not gaining any ground among young people, Hispanics and African Americans. Without solid support from those groups, the president will remain the underdog.
THE WHITE HOUSE has given up on use of the phrase “Bidenomics,” since the public has dismissed arguments that the economy is solid and inflation is falling. Even Federal Reserve officials concede that progress has been modest on inflation.
THIS LATEST POLL COMES ON THE HEELS OF A REVOLT by the Democrats’ left wing over Israel. Biden has expressed outrage over civilian casualties in the Gaza war, but he has not taken any action to curb aid to Israel. This is a serious crisis for the party, which is deeply divided on the war.
LIBERAL ACTIVISTS WOULD NEVER SUPPORT DONALD TRUMP, and they dismiss Robert F. Kennedy Jr. because of his views on vaccines. So the left wing activists may stay at home on Nov. 5 and will continue to disrupt Biden rallies and pressure candidates running for the House and Senate, many of whom are putting distance between themselves and Biden because of Israel.
THIS RAISES THE DEMOCRATS’ GREATEST FEAR: A GOP tidal wave, which cannot be ruled out despite Trump’s courtroom antics and incendiary rhetoric. A case can be made that Trump will win most of the electoral votes in states like those in the Wall Street poll, giving him a fairly comfortable margin — as the Senate almost certainly flips to the Republicans. If the House stays narrowly Republican, Trump could reclaim the White House and both houses.
IT’S WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE A CALL ON THE ELECTION, but Democrats we’ve talked with in recent days worry that voters are angry over the rising cost of virtually everything, not just food and fuel. These voters still have reservations about Trump’s behavior and rhetoric, but it’s becoming clear that if the election was held this spring, Trump would win.
CAN BIDEN COME BACK? His campaign has plenty of money and strong arguments on abortion and Obamacare, but he cannot win without an energized left wing, which is prepared to sit out the election.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
