Democrats on the Ropes?
Author: Greg Valliere
April 4, 2024
THE MOMENTUM SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH toward Joe Biden has faded, amid signs of deep divisions among Democrats over the Gaza war and persistent fears that inflation still persists.
STILL ANOTHER WAKE-UP CALL came this week in an exhaustive Wall Street Journal poll of the key swing states that showed Biden ahead in only one, Wisconsin. The president trailed in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina.
TO COMPOUND THE DEMORATS’ ANXIETY, the poll showed Biden is not gaining any ground among young people, Hispanics and African Americans. Without solid support from those groups, the president will remain the underdog.
THE WHITE HOUSE has given up on use of the phrase “Bidenomics,” since the public has dismissed arguments that the economy is solid and inflation is falling. Even Federal Reserve officials concede that progress has been modest on inflation.
THIS LATEST POLL COMES ON THE HEELS OF A REVOLT by the Democrats’ left wing over Israel. Biden has expressed outrage over civilian casualties in the Gaza war, but he has not taken any action to curb aid to Israel. This is a serious crisis for the party, which is deeply divided on the war.
LIBERAL ACTIVISTS WOULD NEVER SUPPORT DONALD TRUMP, and they dismiss Robert F. Kennedy Jr. because of his views on vaccines. So the left wing activists may stay at home on Nov. 5 and will continue to disrupt Biden rallies and pressure candidates running for the House and Senate, many of whom are putting distance between themselves and Biden because of Israel.
THIS RAISES THE DEMOCRATS’ GREATEST FEAR: A GOP tidal wave, which cannot be ruled out despite Trump’s courtroom antics and incendiary rhetoric. A case can be made that Trump will win most of the electoral votes in states like those in the Wall Street poll, giving him a fairly comfortable margin — as the Senate almost certainly flips to the Republicans. If the House stays narrowly Republican, Trump could reclaim the White House and both houses.
IT’S WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE A CALL ON THE ELECTION, but Democrats we’ve talked with in recent days worry that voters are angry over the rising cost of virtually everything, not just food and fuel. These voters still have reservations about Trump’s behavior and rhetoric, but it’s becoming clear that if the election was held this spring, Trump would win.
CAN BIDEN COME BACK? His campaign has plenty of money and strong arguments on abortion and Obamacare, but he cannot win without an energized left wing, which is prepared to sit out the election.
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