Donald Trump’s Trade Victory
Author: Greg Valliere
May 8, 2025
PRESIDENT TRUMP REPORTEDLY HAS DEMANDED that his economic advisers bring him a victory. He may be on the verge of getting one, even though the details are sketchy.
THE NEW YORK TIMES reported overnight that Great Britain and the U.S. are close to an agreement in principle on a trade deal that may be announced at a press conference this morning.
THE INITIAL BUZZ IS THAT a deal is far from finalized; the details could take months to iron out. But for Trump, he can claim a crucial victory even though some tariffs will remain on the books against the Brits.
WE’RE ON THE ROAD THIS WEEK but we will try to get comments today from Washington trade experts. Our guess is that there will be skepticism over the lack of details, but Trump will boast that more trade deals are coming; perhaps Japan and India are close to agreements in principle.
WE HAVE CAUTIONED THAT IT COULD TAKE AS LONG AS A YEAR to finalize major trade deals. But for Trump, the headline is all that matters, because U.S. trading partners will now feel pressure to seek their own deals.
FOR THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, WEARY OF BEING TEASED with White House leaks about “deals,” this could be a relief from the confusing signals in the past few months. But we wouldn’t pop the Champagne bottles just yet.
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