March Madness: Government Shutdown Looms on Friday Night
Author: Greg Valliere
March 11, 2025
STILL ANOTHER CRISIS, added to a long list — a potential recession, the Ukraine war, massive federal layoffs and a nasty trade war that has started between the U.S. and Canada.
STILL ANOTHER CRISIS: A government shutdown looms on Friday night, as House and Senate leaders play a high-stakes game that’s more about politics than fiscal policy.
WE’LL KEEP THIS BRIEF: The House is expected to vote later today to pass a continuing resolution, keeping the government open until Sept. 30, which would maintain outlays close to FY 2025 levels. Republicans favor this option; it’s the most aggressive choice if you want to curtail spending.
THE HOUSE VOTE WILL BE VERY CLOSE, perhaps passing by only a vote or two. Then the measure would head to the Senate, where 60 votes will be needed — and supporters of this option are 6 or 7 votes short.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT there aren’t enough votes in the Senate — at least not today — to pass the CR in the Senate. That’s because there aren’t enough Democrats to support a deal; a majority wants revenge against Elon Musk and his harsh layoffs.
WOULD DEMOCRATS REALLY provide the votes for a bill that would result in a government shutdown? After all, Democrats have always been opposed to this tactic, and they argue — ironically — that delaying a CR until September would thwart defense spending.
THE REPUBLICANS are resisting huge Pentagon outlays, and the Democrats want to spend more on defense — still another example of how the Washington narrative has flipped.
A SHUTDOWN ON FRIDAY NIGHT wouldn’t have a major impact on the economy, but who won’t get paid? Government workers, of course — they have been a convenient scapegoat. while members of Congress would be exempt from a pay freeze.
A WIMPY COMPROMISE would be a one month continuing resolution, which would give Congress time to pass a more permanent bill. But this new Washington crisis may reinforce a view in the country that the wheels are coming off the wagons in this town, and who can argue?
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