House Hurtles Toward Impeachment, Government Shutdown
Author: Greg Valliere
September 5, 2023
THE MAJORITY OF SENATE REPUBLICANS are aghast; they think a shutdown and impeachment would backfire, costing the GOP the House, Senate and White House in 2024, as moderate voters reject more Washington chaos. The major GOP argument for moderation is coming from Mitch McConnell, who faces a serious health issue.
THE CONFLICT IS IN THE HOUSE: It was clear, several months ago, that there would be consequences for Kevin McCarthy, who made all sorts of concessions to the House Freedom Caucus in order to win just enough votes to become House Speaker.
THREE DOZEN HARD-RIGHT House members appear to have enough votes to reject a budget “continuing resolution” when the new fiscal year begins on Oct. 1. As Newt Gingrich and other Republicans have discovered, the public dislikes this tactic; rating firms like the Fitch agency have become increasingly vocal about budget dysfuncion.
THE FREEDOM CAUCUS WANTS SEVERAL AMENDMENTS to be attached to any continuing resolution — cuts in military aid to Ukraine, more border restrictions for immigrants flooding into Texas, and a new debate on spending cuts, which would scrap the debt ceiling deal that McCarthy and the White House agreed to earlier this summer.
ONE WAY McCARTHY CAN GET A DEAL by Oct. 1 is to beg for votes from Democrats, who he will need again when a final deal has to be ratified, probably in late December. But if McCarthy seeks support from Democrats, the Freedom Caucus could oust him as speaker.
SO McCARTHY HAS TO APPEASE members on the far right, and he has some catnip for them — a pledge to begin an impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden’s business dealings. It’s unclear whether there’s hard evidence against Biden (there is against his son). And there’s no chance that the Senate would vote to convict in a trial (assuming impeachment gets that far). But a House fight over impeachment could inoculate McCarthy on the budget.
EVEN IF THERE’S A TEMPORARY DEAL on Oct. 1, that still would leave a final budget agreement in limbo. Usually there’s a messy deal in December, but the House conservatives could block it unless they get major concessions.
THE IRONY IS THAT REPUBLICANS have a chance of success in the 2024 elections — which could be thwarted if they shut down the government and pursue impeachment. This could be a great gift for the Democrats, who are worried this morning about slumping polls, a Covid outbreak in the White House, and a looming strike in Detroit.
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