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Major Election Setback for GOP; New Voter Fraud Memo; Huge UAW Demands

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Major Election Setback for GOP; New Voter Fraud Memo; Huge UAW Demands

Author: Greg Valliere

August 9, 2023

THREE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS: It’s been a busy 24 hours, with Republicans reeling over a landslide defeat in an Ohio election, as Donald Trump’s insiders face potential new conspiracy charges. And on the economic front, the enormity of United Auto Workers demands is beginning to sink in.THE BIG POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT came in Ohio, where conservatives like Rep. Jim Jordan were resoundingly defeated in an attempt to change the procedures to pass a state Constitutional amendment that would have made it easier to enact aggressive new abortion restrictions.ON THE HEELS of results like the Kansas abortion referendum a year ago, this reinforces a narrative that voters want moderate abortion laws, with Republicans increasingly vulnerable in upcoming elections if they don’t listen to the voters. The recriminations will be loud in the GOP after this setback.

* * * * *
A “FAKE ELECTORS” PLAN apparently has been uncovered by the New York Times, which reports this morning that a newly discovered memo describes a scheme in late 2020 to “focus attention on claims of voter fraud” which would “buy the Trump campaign more time to win litigation that would deprive Biden of electoral votes and/or add to Trump’s column,” according to a memo from campaign lawyer Kenneth Chesebro, who conceded that his “bold, controversial strategy” would be rejected by the Supreme Court. But it would buy time, he said.

PROSECTORS OBVIOUSLY ARE PREPARING MORE CHARGES, focusing on an alleged conspiracy by Chesboro, John Eastman, Rudy Giuliani and other officials in the Trump campaign. There is no proof yet that Trump himself played an active role in implementing Chesebro’s plan, but the prosecutors are not subtle — they are leaking to the New York Times that a conspiracy case — and potential jail time — are on the table. This would get the prosecutors closer to their ultimate goal: a plea deal, implicating Trump

* * * * *

A HUGE AUTO DEMAND: The enormity of UAW’s new contract demand was detailed in an article late yesterday by Bloomberg, which contends that it would increase hourly labor costs to more than $150 per hour at Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co., including wages and benefits, up from the $64 an hour, at GM, Ford and Stellantis make currurrently, company officials claim.

THEIR CALCULATION is based on the UAW’s request for a 46% wage increase, restoration of traditional pensions, cost-of-living increases, reducing the work week to 32 hours from 40 and increasing retiree benefits, according to to officials at Ford, GM and Stellantis. As the war of words heats up, company officials say the union demands could wipe out profitability at the Big Three.

OBVIOUSLY, THIS INITIAL DEMAND will have to come down as negotiations heat up by late summer, but both sides are so far apart that one of two likely scenarios is likely: either a strike or a deal that will greatly heat up the country’s inflation climate. The contract, covering about 150,000 workers, expires on Sept. 14.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.

AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.

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Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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