New Report on Covid Origin Will Further Inflame U.S.-China Relations
Author: Greg Valliere
February 27, 2023
THIS COMES AS U.S. OFFICIALS ARE WARNING China not to provide lethal aid to Russia, which would cross a “red line” and lead to huge new sanctions against Beijing.
YET CHINA SEEMS TO BE EMBOLDENED as an anti-American alliance appears to be forming — a Russia-Iran-China-North Korea axis. Even Belarus appears eager to join this group; its right-wing dictator, the Putin puppet Alexander Lukashenko, is visiting Beijing this week.
BACK IN WASHINGTON, it’s difficult to find anyone who has anything good to say about China. The Wall Street Journal piece immediately fanned flames, with Republicans vowing aggressive hearings.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SORT THROUGH reports from nearly a dozen U.S. intelligence agencies, all of which have differing opinions on the origin of the virus. The report released this weekend was not definitive, and no one is arguing — yet — that a leak from the lab was deliberate. But it killed over 1 million Americans, and Congress wants answers.
THE NEW CHINA COMMITTEE, created by Kevin McCarthy within 24 hours of his election as House speaker, won significant support from Democrats and will get sweeping investigative authority, including subpoena powers.
A MAJOR COMPLAINT FROM THE INVESTIGATORS has been China’s lack of transparency, its refusal to cooperate with the World Health Organization on the virus, and its punishment of countries like Australia that have demanded more transparency.
AFTER EXTENSIVE HEARINGS, this committee may recommend new sanctions against China. The panel will investigate Covid, China’s treatment of dissidents, its persistent spying on Western companies, and its bellicose threats toward Taiwan.
IF THERE’S CLEAR EVIDENCE from U.S. satellites that China is shipping arms to Russia, there would be three implications:
1. More sanctions: A near-certain imposition of more U.S. sanctions, including bans on U.S. companies that seek to do business with China and new curbs on the shipment of Chinese goods to the U.S. Any easing of the Trump sanctions already in place would obviously be out of the question.
2. Defense spending: An emerging view in Congress that U.S. defense spending has to rise significantly. We thought last fall that the Pentagon would not get another 10% increase, which it got in the 2023 budget. But something close to 10% now looks likely, bringing total outlays to over $900 billion in fiscal 2024.
3. Political impact: A new offensive by Republicans, who will claim that President Biden has been slow to react to the Chinese spy balloons, China’s increasingly close ties to Russia, and the its refusal to cooperate in any Covid probe.
A GROWING PORTRAYAL OF BIDEN as slow — on China, the train derailment in Ohio, persistently high inflation, even on his decision whether to seek re-election — will give the GOP plenty of ammunition this spring.
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