October Surprises
Author: Greg Valliere
October 1, 2024
IT STARTED IN 1956, when two crises rocked the world just ahead of a U.S. presidential election. There were two “October surprises” that helped re-elect Dwight Eisenhower — the Suez Canal blockade and an uprising in Hungary dominated the news.
NOW THERE ARE NEW SURPRISES, including a head-scratcher from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. With the Atlanta Fed GDP predicting 3.1% third quarter economic growth, is Powell having second thoughts about aggressive rate cuts?
POWELL INJECTED SOME UNCERTAINTY yesterday into the monetary policy outlook; he’s apparently in no hurry to cut rates aggressively, and now he has a reason to go slow: a port workers strike that could re-ignite inflationary pressures.
SOME COMPANIES HAVE STOCKPILED GOODS in anticipation of a long strike; Joe Biden doesn’t appear to be in any rush to invoke the Taft-Hartley law, which would force workers back to their jobs. The likelihood of a generous settlement could be further evidence that wage inflation has not been eliminated.
OTHER CRISES SEEM INEVITABLE: Hezbollah has been crushed by Israeli forces, and faces an all-out war in the region, which could raise a major October surprise — a war involving Iran, the provocateur.
HURRICANES: There are a couple more storms brewing, not as lethal as Helene but a potential challenge for the Democrats, who are bracing for criticism from Donald Trump that Washington has not done enough to help victims of the storm.
THE TIGHTENING CAMPAIGN: The polls have been fascinating and confusing. Kamala Harris has a lead of perhaps 2 points nationwide, but Donald Trump may have a tiny lead in the Electoral College. A November surprise –without a clear-cut election winner — looks increasingly likely next month.
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