One Month to Go
Author: Greg Valliere
October 8, 2024
AFTER DECADES OF COVERING PRESIDENTIAL RACES, this is the toughest one to predict. We’re not big believers in the accuracy of polls; they can spot a change in direction, but it doesn’t require a polltaker to tell you that this presidential race is virtually tied.
WE’VE LOOKED AT DOZENS OF POLLS the past few days, looking for trends that are hard to find. If forced to pick a trend, it’s that Kamala Harris has more enthusiastic supporters — young people, African-Americans, independents and especially women. Turnout is a huge issue and appears to be tilting toward Harris.
WHAT MAKES THIS ELECTION MADDENING TO HANDICAP is the very real possibility that Harris could win the popular vote by a point or two, while Donald Trump could win the Electoral College by a vote or two. As we wrote yesterday, recounts and charges of fraud are virtually certain.
THERE’S ONE OUTCOME that seems probable — the Senate is likely to flip back to the Republicans, probably by two or three seats — hardly a landslide, but it still appears that the Republicans will keep all of their Senate seats while gaining at least a couple of net seats.
THE HOUSE OUTCOME IS ANYONE’S GUESS: Republicans have an eight seat majority with three vacancies. But the Democrats are ahead on two major issues: they have far more money, and the most potent domestic issue of the election — abortion.
ALL EYES WILL BE ON FLORIDA in the next few days, as Hurricane Milton continues to politicize the weather. Trump claims, with little evidence, that the Biden Administration has bungled the hurricane response.
THIS COULD BE THE SLEEPER ISSUE that everyone has been waiting for. The political graveyards are filled with governors and mayors who couldn’t handle blizzards, floods, earthquakes, etc. Wouldn’t it be ironic, after all the political drama, if the election is decided by hurricanes?
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