One Serious Legal Crisis, One Serious Budget Crisis as Congress Returns
Author: Greg Valliere
January 2, 2024
January 2, 2024
THE SUPREME COURT FACES A MAJOR CRISIS within the next few days, eclipsing the upcoming budget debate, which may drag on for much of the winter. The high court doesn’t have that much time; a ruling on Donald Trump’s presence on state ballots has to come within weeks or sooner.
TWO STATES — COLORADO AND NOW MAINE — HAVE RULED that Trump participated in an insurrection, which under a provision in the 14th amendment to the Constitution would preclude him from appearing on election ballots. Virtually all Republican officials, and many Democrats, are opposed to removing Trump’s name; they argue that only the voters have that option.
WITH SUPER TUESDAY approaching on March 5, legal experts say the country needs one standard for ballots, so the pressure is on the Supreme Court to take the Trump case, perhaps this week. Then a debate could take a few days; it took the court only three days to rule in favor of George W. Bush on Dec. 12, 2000.
THE KEY, OF COURSE, is whether Trump planned or incited the Jan. 6, 2021 riots on Capitol Hill — an issue that could take months or longer to resolve if left solely to the states, so the Supreme Court has to get involved. Conservatives hold a 6-3 majority on the court, and three of the justices were nominated by Trump.
AT THE STATE LEVEL, justices in Maine and Colorado have ruled that Trump participated in an insurrection, and these rulings could boost Trump’s argument that the 2020 election was stolen. Trump supporters in Maine have been energized.
BOTTOM LINE: We’d put odds at 95% that the U.S. Supreme Court will take the case, with odds of about 70-30 that Trump will prevail and stay on the ballots. If he lost in the Supreme Court, the U.S. would plunge into uncharted waters, with write-in campaigns and the very real threat of unrest as voters claim they have been disenfranchised.
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THE OTHER CRISIS — AS USUAL: There’s absolutely no consensus on 2024 spending targets, some of which have a Jan. 19 deadline, while others expire on Feb. 2. We’ll be writing about this for the next few days, unfortunately, as members of Congress argue about a new “top line” spending target and specific appropriations.
THIS ORDINARILY WOULD BE BUSINESS AS USUAL IN WASHINGTON, with a “kick the can” option, but House conservatives are adamant that they will not act until there’s passage of an immigration reform bill, which has strong public support as 10,000 illegal immigrants pour into the U.S. daily with impunity.
UNTIL THERE’S AN IMMIGRATION BILL, THERE WON’T BE SPENDING LEGISLATION — and more importantly, there won’t be new funds for Ukraine and Israel. The need for new defense spending has been complicated by intense fighting between the U.S. and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, a growing threat to oil price stability this winter.
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