Plunging Biden Needs Flawless State of the Union
Author: Greg Valliere
March 4, 2024
MOST STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESSES are forgotten within days, with little impact on the political climate. The speech on Thursday may be different, as President Biden seeks to break out of a terrible slump that jeopardizes his re-election.
WE TALKED WITH POLITICAL STRATEGISTS this past weekend, and they all agreed that Biden needs a forceful, gaffe-free speech that has one major objective — portraying Biden as feisty and dynamic, focused on the future, in an effort to diminish pervasive concerns over his age.
DEMOCRATS IN THIS CITY were aghast over the weekend by poll after poll showing Biden trailing in the general election. We wrote several weeks ago that if the election was held now, Donald Trump would win. That’s still our take — Biden is the underdog — but the election is eight months away, plenty of time for Biden to launch a comeback, starting with this Thursday’s speech.
IT’S WAY TOO EARLY to call this election, because Biden has several potential advantages, starting with fundraising. The Democrats raised $42 million in January and now have $130 million on hand. Republicans raised $23 million in January — amid fears that Trump will dip into party funds to pay for his growing legal bills.
THE DEMOCRATS LEAD ON SEVERAL MAJOR ISSUES, starting with abortion, which has been a key theme in several traditionally conservative states; voters increasingly feel the Republicans have been too strident on the issue. The White House plans to have Kate Cox at the speech; she’s the Texas mother of two who has been locked in a high-profile legal battle with her state after being denied an abortion to end a life-threatening pregnancy.
BIDEN ALSO WILL BLAST AWAY AT CORPORATIONS, calling for higher taxes on profitable companies and reduced health care costs. Trump has called for abolishing Obamacare, despite polls showing strong support for the health plan. Trump doesn’t have an alternative plan, and many Republicans have urged him to drop the issue.
FOR NOW, IT’S CLEAR that Trump has big advantages: Illegal immigration is a huge albatross for Biden, as is his handling of the Mideast War, the economy and urban crime (although statistics point to an improvement in crime and the economy). Age and mental acuity continues to be a Biden weakness, although Trump once again seemed to indicate yesterday that Barack Obama is president.
THERE’S NO QESTION that projecting vigor will be crucial — undoubtedly a reason why Republicans picked Alabama Sen. Katie Britt, 42, to make the GOP rebuttal on Thursday night. We should have included Britt in our list of VP hopefuls last Friday; a solid speech could place her on Trump’s short list.
AFTER THE SPEECH ON THURSDAY, Biden will travel to two battleground states — Pennsylvania on Friday and Atlanta on Saturday. The February jobs report will be out on Friday, potentially a plus for the president. And court rulings, starting today, may persuade a few voters to abandon him — but we think Trump will delay and delay, pushing final court rulings well into 2025.
BIDEN NEEDS ALL THE HELP HE CAN GET; his supporters say this will be a repeat of Harry Truman’s 1948 comeback victory, which focused on a “do nothing” Congress. But there was real enthusiasm for Truman and there’s little for Biden, who needs a flawless speech on Thursday.
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