Republicans Should Win the Senate This Fall
Author: Greg Valliere
March 20, 2024
ELECTION RESULTS IN OHIO LAST NIGHT were a victory for Donald Trump — and highlighted the likelihood that the Republicans will capture the Senate this fall.
ACTUALLY, THE WINNER in a hotly contested fight was considered an easier target for Sen. Sherrod Brown, the populist Democrat who will face Bernie Moreno, a conservative auto dealer. Moreno got strong support from Trump — showing, once again, that the ex-president has strong support in the GOP base.
MORENO BEAT THE ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICAN, who was mocked as a “Republican in Name Only” — or a RINO — by Trump, who is aiming for a GOP Senate takeover in November. While control of the House will remain too close to call for months to come, there’s no question that Republicans are favored to capture the Senate.
THE DEMOCRATS will have to defend 23 of 34 seats this fall. They currently have a 51-49 margin. Moreover, there are several weak Democratic seats — the GOP should capture the West Virginia seat of Joe Manchin, the Montana seat of Jon Tester, and probably Ohio. And there are some other Democratic seats that look shaky — Arizona, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
THE REPUBLICANS, ON THE OTHER HAND, have only two seats in the entire country that look vulnerable, and they’re probably safe — Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas. Cruz has plenty of detractors but he has an impressive campaign track record and has to be considered the favorite.
IT THERE WAS A MESSAGE LAST NIGHT — other than Trump’s strong support in the GOP base — it’s that the Old Guard in the Republican party is becoming extinct. The losing candidate in Ohio was backed by stalwarts Mike DeWine, the governor, and Rob Portman, the highly regarded GOP moderate. They’re now dinosaurs; the other Ohio Senator, conservative J.D. Vance, has his eyes on the White House in 2028.
Note: This article was updated to reflect that Mike DeWine is currently the governor of Ohio and that the Democrats currently hold a 51-49 margin in the Senate.
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