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The Democrats Have a 2028 Frontrunner

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The Democrats Have a 2028 Frontrunner

Author: Greg Valliere

July 22, 2025

THE PRESIDENTIAL FIELD IS ALREADY GROWING as Democrats visit key states and raise money. The media is fixated on California Gov. Gavin Newsom, but we think he’s too liberal for the electorate.

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A MODERATE, the candidate to watch — two-term Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. We think Beshear, 47, is the party’s frontrunner.

BESHEAR has been the insiders’ favorite for the past year, largely because he has won elections in a state that has voted for conservatives Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell, two prominent Republicans. Beshear has been governor since 2019; he also was Attorney General. His father was governor before that.

“He’s a Bill Clinton Democrat without the baggage,’ one Democrat tells us. He has a touch of glamour — Beshear is scheduled to land on the cover of Vogue magazine later this summer.

THERE ARE A DOZEN OTHER LIKELY ENTRANTS — some on the left, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or governors like Josh Shapiro (Pa.), JB Pritzker (Ill.) and Gretchen Whitmer (Mich.) likely to run in an enormous field. There’s not enough space to list all the likely candidates.

JD VANCE is the clear GOP frontrunner in a smaller field that probably will include Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio, Glenn Youngkin and Donald Trump Jr., who could liven up the election.

THE 2026 ELECTION COMES FIRST — we think the Republicans will lose their tiny House majority, with the Senate too close to call. Republicans were looking good a month ago, as their Big Beautiful tax bill won enactment, but the Jeffrey Epstein scandal has done enormous damage to Trump and the Republicans.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.

AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.

Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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