The Mideast War Widens
Author: Greg Valliere
January 12, 2024
THERE ARE SEVERAL MAJOR IMPLICATIONS of a wider Middle East war, all of them worrisome. Shipping and fuel costs are rising, the Houthis are promising more attacks, and in Congress there’s unease over a potential war that could involve Iran.
THE INITIAL REACTION IN WASHINGTON to last night’s allied attack was that it was long overdue, but some members of Congress — which can’t even produce a budget — criticized the White House for not seeking their permission first.
THE BIGGEST FEAR — the likelihood of a wider war involving Iran — has been a major concern since the Israeli-Hamas war began on Oct. 7. There’s no question that Iran is supporting Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis; more attacks are likely, dragging allies into the conflict. The Netherlands, Australia, Canada and Bahrain participated in last night’s attack, providing logistics, intelligence and other support.
ONE OF THE FEW AREAS OF AGREEMENT between mainstream defense analysts on the right and left in the U.S. is a deep antipathy toward Iran, which seemingly wants hegemony over the Middle East. Tehran has provided technological and intelligence support to Hamas, and U.S. intelligence officials believe the Iranians are close to producing a crude nuclear bomb.
IRAN SEEMS AVERSE to getting into an all-out war with the U.S. and Israel, so Tehran relies on surrogates, such as militias in Iraq and Syria, which have stepped up their targeting of U.S. forces deployed in both countries. American troops have absorbed at least 131 attacks since Oct. 17, according to Pentagon data. More than 2,000 ships have been forced to divert thousands of miles to avoid the Red Sea, causing weeks of shipping delays.
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY MODEST THUS FAR, but the diversion of container ships from the Suez Canal around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa is having a “global contagion” effect. Freight rates for a 40-foot container from North Asia to Europe have surged more than 600% to $6,000 since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
SHIPPING RATES from North Asia to the U.S. East Coast have jumped 137% to $5,100 for a 40-foot container from early October, according to S&P Global. Rates from North Asia to the U.S. West Coast have jumped 131% during the same period. Yesterday’s CPI report showed that inflation is still a concern.
NO ONE IN WASHINGTON WAS SURPRISED by last night’s strike; after months of striking commercial vessels in the Red Sea, the Houthis surely knew that a U.S.-led attack was inevitable — but leaders of the radical group appear eager to continue attacks on U.S. ships; several dozen attacks have been launched by the Houthis, whose military capabilities were honed by more than eight years of fighting against a Saudi-led coalition, which failed to defeat the Houthis.
THE HOUTHIS, a tribal group, have taken over much of northern Yemen since they stormed the nation’s capital, Sana, in 2014, effectively winning a war against the Saudi-led coalition that spent years trying to rout them.
THE WESTERN COALITION struck more than 60 targets in 16 locations in Yemen last night with more than 100 precision-guided munitions. The strikes were launched by a consortium of military aircraft and naval assets, including submarines, with Tomahawk missiles launched from the sea. They hit munition depots, launching sites and radar installations. More attacks — from both sides — seem likely.
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