The Rumor that Won’t Die
Author: Greg Valliere
February 8, 2024
EVERYWHERE WE GO, we hear the rumor: Joe Biden will drop out of the presidential race once he has enough delegates to win the nomination — and, according to the rumors, he will then give those delegates to Michelle Obama. There’s one major flaw in this ridiculous rumor: Michelle Obama hates politics.
THE IDEA THAT BIDEN MIGHT DROP OUT has one tiny element of plausibility: if he continues to make disturbing gaffes, there could be a groundswell in the party to replace him.
YESTERDAY BIDEN declared that he spoke with former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl after the Jan. 6 riot in 2021. Kohl was deceased by then; he passed away on June 16, 2017.
BIDEN SEEMS TO BE GOOD FOR a gaffe a week, which once seemed funny. Now there’s growing uneasiness within the party; his gait and mind seem fragile (not that Donald Trump is immune from gaffes). But Biden’s narrative includes this major difference: a clear majority of Democrats don’t want him to run again.
A MAJOR REASON WHY BIDEN WON’T DROP OUT is that there’s no plausible successor — Kamala Harris has very weak polls, and Gavin Newsom is too far to the left for most voters. There are plenty of talented Democrats, including Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, but most voters have never heard of them.
VOTERS HAVE HEARD OF MICHELLE OBAMA, who has strong support, a Harvard Law degree, and a dazzling personality. But we recall a conversation with a friend on her Secret Service detail who told us that she loathes politics and has absolutely no interest in running.
INTERNET RUMORS ARE ALL THE RAGE, from Biden to Taylor Swift, and this Biden rumor has spread through the Wall Street trading community. We’ll give it a 3% probability. Could Biden drop out without anointing a successor? Maybe a 10% likelihood.
THE BURDEN, QUITE CLEARLY, is on Biden’s aides to keep him out of situations where he could stumble; they blocked, without hesitation, a proposed TV interview before the Super Bowl. Too risky, the aides agreed.
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