Three Political Surprises; Showdown at the White House Tomorrow
Author: Greg Valliere
February 26, 2024
POLITICS CAN SURPRISE, and we think voters may stir the pot in the next couple of weeks. It still looks like it will be Trump vs. Biden in the general election, but consider:
SURPRISE NUMBER 1 — A pothole in the Michigan primary tomorrow was never considered likely; Donald Trump will win and should pick up most of the state’s delegates at a GOP convention this weekend. And Joe Biden should win the Democrats’ primary. But the latter race could produce a surprise — angry Arab-American voters, who want to send a message that the U.S. has been coddling Israel.
Antipathy toward Biden is growing around the city of Birmingham, led by its House representative, Rashida Tiaib, who is urging the state’s growing Arab-American population to vote “uncommitted” tomorrow. A win by Biden with anything less than 75% of the vote would be the last thing he needs, with Democrats already uneasy about his age.
SURPRISE NUMBER 2 — Donald Trump’s debts continue to mount; he now owes New York at least $454 million — the $355 million penalty for submitting false data to financial institutions, plus interest, which is now accruing at a rate of $112,000 per day. Separately, he faces an $83.3 million judgment in a federal defamation case brought by the writer E. Jean Carroll.
Trump soon may have to admit that he doesn’t have the cash to cover these fines, and he may have to consider liquidating properties. His supporters, who consider him a fabulously successful businessman, may have second thoughts. To keep both judgments from being enforced while he appeals, Trump must put up the entire amount in either cash or bonds, according to legal experts [There’s a detailed report on his finances in this morning’s Washington Post.]
SURPRISE NUMBER 3 — Nikki Haley reportedly is preparing to exit the race within a couple of weeks, despite her vow to slog on. She’s waiting for more Trump gaffes like his one last weekend about black Americans and mug shots, but Haley simply cannot keep pace with Trump’s accumulation of delegates. She may be out of the race on March 6, the day after Super Tuesday — a plus for Trump, who has been softened up for the general election by the acerbic Haley.
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GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN LOOMS: President Biden will meet tomorrow with the four leaders of Congress, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jefferies and Mike Johnson. Congress isn’t close to a budget deal that can be hammered out by this Friday, so there may be only two options: an agreement in principle, giving Congress a couple more weeks for a deal, or a government shutdown.
FUNDING FOR UKRAINE IS CONSIDERED SUCH A CRUCIAL ISSUE that some aid still seems likely — perhaps via a “discharge petition” that would pry an aid package out of the House, which refuses to vote on the issue. The pressure is on Johnson, whose clout in the House has plummeted this month.
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